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The HAMP NPV model: development and early performance


  • Holden, Steve
  • Kelly, Austin
  • McManus, Doug
  • Scharlemann, Therese
  • Singer, Ryan
  • Worth, John


The foreclosure crisis that began in 2008 triggered the need for standardized tools to evaluate distressed mortgages as candidates for modification. A key component of the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was the development of a standardized Net Present Value (NPV) model to identify troubled loans that were value-enhancing candidates for payment-reducing modifications. This paper discusses the development of the HAMP NPV model, its purpose, and the constraints that dictated its structure and limitations. We describe the structure and the estimation of the model in detail. Furthermore, we describe the responsiveness of the model to key characteristics, such as loan to value and credit score and provide new evidence on the relationship between HAMP modification performance and key borrower and modification characteristics. The paper concludes with a discussion of model limitations and suggestions for further refinement of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Holden, Steve & Kelly, Austin & McManus, Doug & Scharlemann, Therese & Singer, Ryan & Worth, John, 2011. "The HAMP NPV model: development and early performance," MPRA Paper 32040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32040

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1996. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Single-Family Foreclosure Alternatives," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 105-120, September.
    2. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    3. Lawrence R. Cordell & Karen E. Dynan & Andreas Lehnert & J. Nellie Liang & Eileen Mauskopf, 2008. "The incentives of mortgage servicers: myths and realities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Zhu & Jared Janowiak & Lu Ji & Kadiri Karamon & Douglas McManus, 2015. "The Effect of Mortgage Payment Reduction on Default: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinance Program," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1035-1054, November.
    2. Passmore, Wayne & Sherlund, Shane M., 2016. "FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 30 Jun 2017.
    3. W. Scott Frame, 2015. "Introduction to Special Issue: Government Involvement in Residential Mortgage Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 807-819, November.

    More about this item


    mortgage modification; loan modification; HAMP; Home Affordable Mortgage Program; NPV test; Net Present Value Test; distressed mortgage;

    JEL classification:

    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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