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Strategic loan modification: An options-based response to strategic default

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  • Das, Sanjiv R.
  • Meadows, Ray

Abstract

This paper presents a parsimonious barrier model for the optimal principal reset in a loan modification, thereby maximizing the loan value to the lender bank and minimizing the likelihood of strategic foreclosure by the homeowner. Writing down the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio will reduce the present value of future payments on the loan, but will also reduce the probability of default, thereby saving foreclosure losses. The optimal trade-off of these two countervailing effects will pinpoint the optimal LTV at which the loan must be reset. We present a simple barrier option decomposition of the loan value that makes the optimization of LTV easy to implement. An extension of the model is shown to account for varying growth rate assumptions about house prices. The model in this paper specifically accounts for the homeowner’s willingness to pay, and uses the framework to model shared-appreciation mortgages (SAMs).

Suggested Citation

  • Das, Sanjiv R. & Meadows, Ray, 2013. "Strategic loan modification: An options-based response to strategic default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 636-647.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:2:p:636-647 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.10.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul Willen, 2010. "Reducing Foreclosures: No Easy Answers," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 89-138 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher S. Gerardi & Lorenz Goette & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Reducing foreclosures," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 275-308.
    7. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures and securitization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 835-853.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    9. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr & Deng, Yongheng, 2001. "Optimal Put Exercise: An Empirical Examination of Conditions for Mortgage Foreclosure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, September.
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    11. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    12. Boudoukh, Jacob, et al, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities in a Multifactor Interest Rate Environment: A Multivariate Density Estimation Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 405-446.
    13. Christopher L. Foote & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Eileen Mauskopf & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "A proposal to help distressed homeowners: a government payment-sharing plan," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Radnai, Márton, 2015. "A lakossági devizahitelek átárazásának bumeránghatása
      [The boomerang effect of repricing household foreign-currency mortgage loans]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-138.
    2. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Mues, Christophe, 2016. "An empirical comparison of classification algorithms for mortgage default prediction: evidence from a distressed mortgage market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 427-439.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic default; Foreclosure; Loan modification; Barrier options;

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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