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Disaggregate fluctuations in the US farm output: Testing for convergence

  • Temel, Tugrul

This study examines movements in per farm real output in the US counties, and tests for convergence of output at the aggregate, regional, and divisional levels. The estimations are carried out for the period 1982-1992 and for its two constituent sub-periods, 1982-87 and 1987-92. For the period 1982-92, results show weak convergence at aggregate and regional levels. For the first sub-period 1982-87 (the second sub-period 1987-92) weak convergence (strong divergence) takes place at aggregate and regional levels, except the Northeast region showing strong divergence (weak convergence). These results indicate the Northeast region having distinct movements in farm output compared to the rest of the US. This can, in part, be attributed to the type of farming prevailing in Northeast. At divisional level the estimates are not robust neither for the entire period nor its sub-periods. Overall, the conjecture of the neoclassical growth model is supported at aggregate and regional levels, with unclear pattern at the divisional level.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31915.

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Date of creation: 29 Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31915
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  1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  4. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  5. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  7. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 137-59.
  8. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  9. Quah, Danny T, 1996. " Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
  10. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  11. Ben-David, Dan, 1994. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  13. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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