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Disaggregate fluctuations in the US farm output: Testing for convergence


  • Temel, Tugrul


This study examines movements in per farm real output in the US counties, and tests for convergence of output at the aggregate, regional, and divisional levels. The estimations are carried out for the period 1982-1992 and for its two constituent sub-periods, 1982-87 and 1987-92. For the period 1982-92, results show weak convergence at aggregate and regional levels. For the first sub-period 1982-87 (the second sub-period 1987-92) weak convergence (strong divergence) takes place at aggregate and regional levels, except the Northeast region showing strong divergence (weak convergence). These results indicate the Northeast region having distinct movements in farm output compared to the rest of the US. This can, in part, be attributed to the type of farming prevailing in Northeast. At divisional level the estimates are not robust neither for the entire period nor its sub-periods. Overall, the conjecture of the neoclassical growth model is supported at aggregate and regional levels, with unclear pattern at the divisional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Temel, Tugrul, 2011. "Disaggregate fluctuations in the US farm output: Testing for convergence," MPRA Paper 31915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31915

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
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    3. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    4. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    5. Ben-David, Dan, 1994. "Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
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    8. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
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    13. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    More about this item


    Convergence of farm output; US farm policy;

    JEL classification:

    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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