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Convergence of Sectoral Productivity in Turkish Provinces: A Markov Chains Model

  • Temel, T.
  • Tansel, A.
  • Gungor, N.D.

this study examines the role that sectors play in aggregate convergence of provincial labor productivity across the 67 provinces of turkey during the 1975-1990 period. a markov chain model is applied to characterize the long-run tendencies of productivity both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. in order to determine the likely sources of aggregate fluctuations, sectoral time-invariant distributions are compared with the aggregate distribution, and those sectors that exhibit similar distribution patterns as that of the aggregate distribution are characterized as dominant sectors. evidence strongly suggests that the aggregate time-invariant distribution is determined mainly by the agricultural, industrial and transportation sectors. specifically, the pattern of polarization of productivity levels in these three sectors is very similar to the pattern prevailing at the aggregate level. the results suggest that, in the long run, two convergence clubs are likely to emerge - one for the agricultural and another for the highly industrialized provinces. an exception is the service sector, which exhibits global convergence.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 65-84

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:2_6
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  1. Temel, Tugrul T. & Tansel, Aysit & Albersen, P.J., 1999. "Convergence and Spatial Patterns in Labor Productivity: Nonparametric Estimations for Turkey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 29(1).
  2. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  3. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
  6. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  7. Tugrul Temel, 2000. "U.S. Farm Wages and Labor Market Efficiency," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 420-437.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  9. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  10. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  11. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
  12. Douglas Robertson, 1995. "Are banks converging to one size?," Working Papers 95-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Tugrul Temel & Edward M. Tavernier, 2001. "Are U.S. Farm Wages Really Depressing? Evidence from the Northeast and South," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 29(3), pages 212-225, Winter.
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