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Is Malaysia exempted from impossible trinity: empirical evidence from 1991-2009

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  • Lim, Ewe Ghee
  • Goh, SooKhoon

Abstract

This paper examines Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) monetary policy autonomy in 1991-2009, a period of volatile capital flows, during which BNM operated under several exchange regimes: managed floating; fixed exchange rates; and fixed exchange rates with selective capital controls. Using a modified version of the Brissimis, Gibson and Tsakalotos (2002) model, the paper’s empirical estimates show that the same-period offset coefficients are significantly less than unity under all regimes, indicating that the Malaysian central bank possesses some short-run control over monetary policy (even under fixed exchange rates). Although the long-run offset coefficient continues to be less than unity under managed floating, it is not significantly less than unity under fixed exchange rates. These results show that Malaysia is not exempted from the impossible trinity except in the very short-run. Perhaps one of the reasons Malaysia abandoned its US dollar exchange rate peg on 20 July 2005 to move back to managed floating is to increase its monetary policy independence. One implication of the Malaysian monetary policy experience is that managed floating with active sterilization may be a viable strategy for emerging market economies to deal with volatile capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Ewe Ghee & Goh, SooKhoon, 2011. "Is Malaysia exempted from impossible trinity: empirical evidence from 1991-2009," MPRA Paper 30804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30804
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30804/1/MPRA_paper_30804.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Brissimis, Sophocles N & Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Offsetting Capital Flows and Sterilization: Germany and the ERM," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 63-78, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Offset Coefficient; Sterilization Coefficient; Monetary Autonomy; Impossible Trinity;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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