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Is Malaysia exempted from impossible trinity: empirical evidence from 1991-2009

  • Lim, Ewe Ghee
  • Goh, SooKhoon

This paper examines Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) monetary policy autonomy in 1991-2009, a period of volatile capital flows, during which BNM operated under several exchange regimes: managed floating; fixed exchange rates; and fixed exchange rates with selective capital controls. Using a modified version of the Brissimis, Gibson and Tsakalotos (2002) model, the paper’s empirical estimates show that the same-period offset coefficients are significantly less than unity under all regimes, indicating that the Malaysian central bank possesses some short-run control over monetary policy (even under fixed exchange rates). Although the long-run offset coefficient continues to be less than unity under managed floating, it is not significantly less than unity under fixed exchange rates. These results show that Malaysia is not exempted from the impossible trinity except in the very short-run. Perhaps one of the reasons Malaysia abandoned its US dollar exchange rate peg on 20 July 2005 to move back to managed floating is to increase its monetary policy independence. One implication of the Malaysian monetary policy experience is that managed floating with active sterilization may be a viable strategy for emerging market economies to deal with volatile capital flows.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30804.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30804
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  1. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  2. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Ramon Moreno & Mark M. Spiegel, 1997. "Are Asian economies exempt from the "impossible trinity?": evidence from Singapore," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2009. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt840728sc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  6. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan & Tom Willett, 2008. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 171-199.
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  9. Savvides, Andreas, 1998. "Inflation and monetary policy in selected West and Central African countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 809-827, May.
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  11. Brissimis, S.N. & Gibson, H.D. & Tsakalotos, E., 1997. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Offsetting Capital Flows and Sterilisation," DEOS Working Papers 97-06, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  12. Gyuhan Kim, 1995. "Exchange rate constraints and money control in Korea," Working Papers 1995-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Waheed, Muhammad, 2007. "Central bank intervention, sterilization and monetary independence: the case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2328, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2007.
  14. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  15. Olcay Yucel Emir & Almila Karasoy & Kursat Kunter, 2000. "Monetary Policy Reaction Function In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  16. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1978. "Offsetting capital flows : A reexamination of the German case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 131-142, January.
  17. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June.
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