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Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?

  • Mark D., Partridge
  • Dan S., Rickman
  • M. Rose, Olfert
  • Kamar, Ali

This paper examines whether the significant downward shift in U.S. gross migration rates after 2000 is indicative of the economy nearing a stationary spatial equilibrium. Nearness to spatial equilibrium would imply that site-specific factors such as amenities and location within the urban hierarchy have little influence on migration because their values have been capitalized into prices, causing interregional utility levels to become approximately equal. Yet, in an examination of U.S. counties, we find empirical evidence of only a mild ebbing of natural amenity-based migration after 2000 and little slowing of population redistribution from peripheral towards core urban areas. Instead, the primary finding is a downward shift in the responsiveness of population to spatially asymmetric demand shocks post-2000, and associated increased responsiveness of local area labor supply, more consistent with European regional labor markets. Quantile regression analysis suggests that this shift does not relate to a difference in regional labor market tightness across the two decades.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28157/1/MPRA_paper_28157.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28157.

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Date of creation: 27 Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28157
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  1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2006. "The Geography of American Poverty: Is There a Need for Place-Based Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number gap, June.
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  4. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2010. "Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey," NBER Working Papers 16536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Graves, Philip E., 1979. "A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 135-147, April.
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Matthew G. Resseger, 2010. "The Complementarity Between Cities And Skills," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 221-244.
  9. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2007. "Labor reallocation over the business cycle: new evidence from internal migration," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz, 2001. "Consumer city," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-50, January.
  11. Treyz, George I, et al, 1993. "The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 209-14, May.
  12. McGranahan, David A., 1999. "Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change," Agricultural Economics Reports 33955, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  13. David E. Clark & William E. Herrin & Thomas A. Knapp & Nancy E. White, 2003. "Migration and implicit amenity markets: does incomplete compensation matter?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 289-307, July.
  14. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, June.
  15. Pingle, Jonathan F., 2007. "A note on measuring internal migration in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 38-42, January.
  16. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "Lost in space: population growth in the American hinterlands and small cities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(6), pages 727-757, November.
  17. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Hui Li, 2009. "Who Wins From Local Economic Development?," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(1), pages 13-27, February.
  18. Gary S. Becker, 1962. "Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 9.
  19. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2008. "Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1326-1333.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
  21. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March.
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  23. Alessandra Faggian & Philip McCann, 2004. "Human Capital Flows and Regional Knowledge Assets:A Simultaneous Equation Model," ERSA conference papers ersa04p354, European Regional Science Association.
  24. Mincer, Jacob, 1978. "Family Migration Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 749-73, October.
  25. McKinley L. Blackburn, 2010. "Internal migration and the earnings of married couples in the United States," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 87-111, January.
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