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Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?

Author

Listed:
  • Mark D., Partridge
  • Dan S., Rickman
  • M. Rose, Olfert
  • Kamar, Ali

Abstract

This paper examines whether the significant downward shift in U.S. gross migration rates after 2000 is indicative of the economy nearing a stationary spatial equilibrium. Nearness to spatial equilibrium would imply that site-specific factors such as amenities and location within the urban hierarchy have little influence on migration because their values have been capitalized into prices, causing interregional utility levels to become approximately equal. Yet, in an examination of U.S. counties, we find empirical evidence of only a mild ebbing of natural amenity-based migration after 2000 and little slowing of population redistribution from peripheral towards core urban areas. Instead, the primary finding is a downward shift in the responsiveness of population to spatially asymmetric demand shocks post-2000, and associated increased responsiveness of local area labor supply, more consistent with European regional labor markets. Quantile regression analysis suggests that this shift does not relate to a difference in regional labor market tightness across the two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark D., Partridge & Dan S., Rickman & M. Rose, Olfert & Kamar, Ali, 2010. "Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?," MPRA Paper 28157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28157
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28157/1/MPRA_paper_28157.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan S. Rickman & Mouhcine Guettabi, 2015. "The Great Recession And Nonmetropolitan America," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 93-112, January.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    3. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Ketterer, Tobias & Castells-Quintana, David, 2015. "Do we follow the money? The drivers of migration across regions in the EU," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 2, pages 27-45.
    4. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2012. "Migration, housing market, and labor market responses to employment shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 267-284.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial equilibrium; migration; regional growth;

    JEL classification:

    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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