IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/18426.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence

Author

Listed:
  • Alper, Emre
  • Hatipoglu, Ozan

Abstract

We document the role of independence for Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) as it matters to successful implementation of monetary policy. We compare the implementation of monetary policy pre- and post-crisis periods within an empirical framework which allows us to measure the role of independence quantitatively. We estimate a Taylor rule with time varying coefficients by employing a dual extended Kalman filter. We find that the coefficient of inflation gap has increased substantially since CBRT gained de-juro independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Alper, Emre & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2009. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 18426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18426/1/MPRA_paper_18426.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. C. Emre Alper & Ziya Onis, 2003. "Financial Globalization, the Democratic Deficit, and Recurrent Crises in Emerging Markets : The Turkish Experience in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 5-26, May.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    7. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2008. "Inertial Taylor rules: the benefit of signaling future policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 193-203.
    8. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    9. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226791258 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Ãzatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
    11. Jean-François Segalotto & Mr. Marco Arnone & Mr. Bernard J Laurens, 2006. "Measures of Central Bank Autonomy: Empirical Evidence for OECD, Developing, and Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/228, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Paul R. Masson & Miguel A. Savastano & Sunil Sharma, 2019. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 10, pages 331-383, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    14. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    15. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(2), pages 1.
    17. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
    18. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?," Working Papers 0510, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Miss Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2003/053, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-359, July.
    21. C. Emre Alper, Ismail Saglam, 2001. "The Transmission of a Sudden Capital Outflow: Evidence from Turkey," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 29-48, March.
    22. Eijffinger, S. & De Hann, J., 1995. "The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence," Papers 9587, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    23. Alex Cukierman, 1993. "Central Bank Independence, Political Influence and Macroeconomic Performance: a Survey of Recent Development," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(91), pages 271-292.
    24. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
    25. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Özgür ERSİN & Melike BİLDİRİCİ, 2017. "A Nonlinear Analysis of Monetary Policy with Dominance Indices in Turkey: MS-VAR Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 22-46, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    2. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 81646, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2017.
    8. Hatipoglu, Ozan & Alper, C. Emre, 2007. "Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 7107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008.
    9. Down Ian, 2009. "Central Bank Independence, Disinflations and Monetary Policy," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    11. Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    13. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
    14. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    15. Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen & Thanaset Chevapatrakul, 2008. "Forecasting changes in UK interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 53-74.
    16. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    17. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    18. Gustavo Bussinger, 2004. "El canal de crédito como mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en Brasil," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 243-262, julio-sep.
    19. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2019. "Behavioral Monetary Policymaking: Economics, Political Economy and Psychology," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 9, pages 285-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.