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Hétérogénéité structurelle et viabilité d'une sortie monétaire des pays de l'AES de l'UEMOA : une analyse en données de panel (2006-2024)
[Structural heterogeneity and the viability of a monetary exit of the AES countries from WAEMU: a panel data analysis (2006-2024)]

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  • Dayoro, Donatien

Abstract

This study examines the effect of structural heterogeneity on the macroeconomic fundamentals of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, with particular focus on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Over the period 2006-2024, we employ a panel data econometric framework articulated around five alternative estimators: Driscoll-Kraay panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE-DK), the Pooled Mean Group ARDL estimator (PMG-ARDL) of Pesaran-Shin-Smith, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator of Pesaran, the Blundell-Bond System GMM, and the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) of Eberhardt-Bond. Results reveal that the structural divergence index — combining agricultural share, extractive share, and conflict intensity — significantly and negatively affects real GDP growth and foreign direct investment, increases inflation, and deteriorates the current account balance. Sectoral estimations indicate non-linear inverted-U relationships for inflation and U-shaped for growth, suggesting threshold effects. Westerlund (2007) tests confirm a cointegrating long-run relationship. These findings provide a rigorous framework for assessing the preconditions for a potential AES monetary exit. Policy implications suggest that policymakers should prioritize addressing structural vulnerabilities (security, diversification, governance) before or jointly with any monetary transition, in order to minimize adjustment costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dayoro, Donatien, 2026. "Hétérogénéité structurelle et viabilité d'une sortie monétaire des pays de l'AES de l'UEMOA : une analyse en données de panel (2006-2024) [Structural heterogeneity and the viability of a monetary exit of the AES countries from WAEMU: a panel data ," MPRA Paper 129906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:129906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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