Hétérogénéité structurelle et viabilité d'une sortie monétaire des pays de l'AES de l'UEMOA : une analyse en données de panel (2006-2024)[Structural heterogeneity and the viability of a monetary exit of the AES countries from WAEMU: a panel data analysis (2006-2024)]

This study examines the effect of structural heterogeneity on the macroeconomic fundamentals of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries, with particular focus on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) — Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Over the period 2006-2024, we employ a panel data econometric framework articulated around five alternative estimators: Driscoll-Kraay panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE-DK), the Pooled Mean Group ARDL estimator (PMG-ARDL) of Pesaran-Shin-Smith, the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimator of Pesaran, the Blundell-Bond System GMM, and the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) of Eberhardt-Bond. Results reveal that the structural divergence index — combining agricultural share, extractive share, and conflict intensity — significantly and negatively affects real GDP growth and foreign direct investment, increases inflation, and deteriorates the current account balance. Sectoral estimations indicate non-linear inverted-U relationships for inflation and U-shaped for growth, suggesting threshold effects. Westerlund (2007) tests confirm a cointegrating long-run relationship. These findings provide a rigorous framework for assessing the preconditions for a potential AES monetary exit. Policy implications suggest that policymakers should prioritize addressing structural vulnerabilities (security, diversification, governance) before or jointly with any monetary transition, in order to minimize adjustment costs.