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Does economic policy uncertainty reduce financial inclusion?

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  • Ozili, Peterson K

Abstract

This paper examines whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) reduces the level of financial inclusion. I predict that high EPU should have a negative effect on the level of financial inclusion. I argue that high EPU will discourage financial institutions from providing basic financial services to low end customers and unbanked adults, and this will lead to a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Using a sample of 22 countries, I find that EPU does not have a significant impact on financial inclusion. None of the nine indicators of financial inclusion have a significant direct relationship with EPU. Also, I find some evidence that the combined effect of high EPU and high nonperforming loans reduces financial inclusion, particularly through bank branch contraction and a reduction in the use of electronic payments. Meanwhile, the use of formal accounts and credit cards increases in times of high credit supply and high EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozili, Peterson K, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty reduce financial inclusion?," MPRA Paper 111052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111052
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111052/1/MPRA_paper_111052.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mao, Fengfu & Wang, Yuanfan & Zhu, Mengsi, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion, traditional finance system and household entrepreneurship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial inclusion; policy uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; business cycle; non-performing loan; cost efficiency; cost to income ratio; access to finance; formal account; credit cards; debit cards; mobile payments; electronic payment; borrowings; savings bank branch; unbanked adults.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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