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Non-parametric counterfactual analysis in dynamic general equilibrium

  • Felix Kubler


    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Karl Schmedders


    (Kellogg MEDS, Northwestern University)

In this paper we examine non-parametric restrictions on counterfactual analysis in a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Under the assumption of time-separable expected utility and complete markets all equilibria in this model are stationary, the Arrow-Debreu prices uniquely reveal the probabilities and discount factor and the equilibrium correspondence defined as the map from endowments to stationary (probability-free) state prices, is identical to the equilibrium correspondence in a standard Arrow-Debreu exchange economy with additively separable utility. We examine observable restriction on this correspondence and give necessary as well as sufficient conditions on profiles of individual endowments that ensure that associated equilibrium prices cannot be arbitrary. While often there are restrictions on possible price changes we also show that in most cases results from a single agent economy do not carry over to a setting with heterogeneous agents.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 07-027.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-027
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  1. Jean-Pierre Danthine & John B. Donaldson & Christos Giannikos & Hany Guirguis, 2004. "On the Consequences of State Dependent Preferences for the Pricing of Financial Assets," FAME Research Paper Series rp73, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  2. Yves Balasko & Mich Tvede, . "Equilibrium Data Sets and Compatible Utility Rankings," Discussion Papers 05-23, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005.
  3. Yves Balasko & Mich Tvede, 2009. "Individual Preference Rankings Compatible with Prices, Income Distributions and Total Resources," Discussion Papers 09-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Hara, Chiaki & Huang, James & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2007. "Representative Consumer's Risk Aversion and Efficient Risk-Sharing Rules," Discussion Paper 323, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2003. "Generic inefficiency of equilibria in the general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and infinite time," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-15, 08.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  7. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Working Papers melino-03-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  8. Balasko, Yves & Tvede, Mich, 2009. "The geometry of finite equilibrium datasets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(5-6), pages 391-396, May.
  9. Felix Kubler & Karl Schmedders, 2007. "Non-parametric counterfactual analysis in dynamic general equilibrium," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Kubler, Felix, 2003. "Observable restrictions of general equilibrium models with financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 137-153, May.
  11. Mas-Colell, Andreu, 1977. "On the equilibrium price set of an exchange economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 117-126, August.
  12. Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2000. "Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 240-259, August.
  13. Brown, Donald J & Matzkin, Rosa L, 1996. "Testable Restrictions on the Equilibrium Manifold," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1249-62, November.
  14. Bewley, Truman F., 1972. "Existence of equilibria in economies with infinitely many commodities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 514-540, June.
  15. Constantinides, George M, 1982. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and without Demand Aggregation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 253-67, April.
  16. Varian, Hal R, 1983. "Non-Parametric Tests of Consumer Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 99-110, January.
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