IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/m2cet.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England

Author

Listed:
  • Goutsmedt, Aurélien

    (UC Louvain - F.R.S-FNRS)

  • Sergi, Francesco
  • Cherrier, Beatrice
  • Claveau, François
  • Fontan, Clément
  • Acosta, Juan

Abstract

Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974-2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco & Cherrier, Beatrice & Claveau, François & Fontan, Clément & Acosta, Juan, 2023. "To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," SocArXiv m2cet, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:m2cet
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/m2cet
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/654a7c2a253a740529a0edd5/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/m2cet?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harro Maas & Tiago Mata & John B. Davis, 2011. "Introduction: The history of economics as a history of practice," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 635-642, December.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Blake, Andy & Young, Garry, 2018. "Macroeconomic Modelling at the Institute: Hopes, Challenges and a Lasting Contribution," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 246, pages 3-14, November.
    3. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.
    4. De Vroey,Michel, 2016. "A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898430, September.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 2008. "Improving monetary policy models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2460-2475, August.
    6. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    8. Duncan Needham, 2014. "UK Monetary Policy from Devaluation to Thatcher, 1967–82," Palgrave Studies in the History of Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-36954-3, December.
    9. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    10. S.G. Hall & S.G.B. Henry, 2018. "Macro Modelling at the NIESR: Its Recent History," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 246(1), pages 15-23, November.
    11. Rodrik, Dani, 2017. "Economics Rules: Why Economics Works, When It Fails, and How To Tell The Difference," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198736905.
    12. Backhouse, Roger E. & Forder, James & Laskaridis, Christina, 2023. "The natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    15. Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2006. "Forecasting using predictive likelihood model averaging," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 373-379, June.
    16. Shamik Dhar & Darren Pain & Ryland Thomas, 2000. "A small structural empirical model of the UK monetary transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 113, Bank of England.
    17. Harrison, Richard & Oomen, Özlem, 2010. "Evaluating and estimating a DSGE model for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 380, Bank of England.
    18. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    19. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    20. David Vines & Samuel Wills, 2018. "The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project: an analytical assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 1-42.
    21. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
    22. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Philippe D Karam & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci & Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Benjamin L Hunt & Mr. Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "GEM: A New International Macroeconomic Model," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/010, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Jaakko Kuorikoski & Aki Lehtinen, 2018. "Model selection in macroeconomics: DSGE and ad hocness," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 252-264, July.
    24. Holland, Allison & Scott, Andrew, 1998. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1067-1092, July.
    25. Roger Backhouse & Béatrice Cherrier, 2019. "The Ordinary Business of Macroeconometric Modeling: Working on the Fed-MIT-Penn Model, 1964–74," Post-Print halshs-02725159, HAL.
    26. David F Hendry & John N J Muellbauer, 2018. "The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 287-328.
    27. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    28. Goutsmedt, Aurélien, 2019. "Macroeconomics at the Crossroads: Stagflation and the Struggle between "Keynesian" and New Classical Macroeconometric Programs," OSF Preprints y364t, Center for Open Science.
    29. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Bank of England Macroeconomic Model: Its Nature and Implications," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 529-545, July.
    30. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    31. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco, 2024. "Redefining Scientisation: Central Banks between Science and Politics," SocArXiv dxvfp, Center for Open Science.
    2. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Sergi, 2020. "The Standard Narrative about DSGE Models in Central Banks’ Technical Reports," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 163-193, March.
    2. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary policy in a changing environment," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 19.
    4. Jens D J Larsen & Jack McKeown, 2003. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interst rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 414-442, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Juan Acosta & Beatrice Cherrier & François Claveau & Clément Fontan & Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi, 2023. "Six Decades of Economic Research at the Bank of England," Post-Print hal-03919394, HAL.
    6. Jack McKeown & Jens McKeown, 2004. "The informational content of empirical measures of real interest rate and output gaps for the United Kingdom," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 62, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    8. Tobón Arias, Alexander, 2022. "La estructura lógica de la teoría del equilibrio general dinámico estocástico," Borradores Departamento de Economía 20477, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    9. Jaakko Kuorikoski & Aki Lehtinen, 2018. "Model selection in macroeconomics: DSGE and ad hocness," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 252-264, July.
    10. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2018. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 65-101.
    11. Issing Otmar & Wieland Volker, 2013. "Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy: Reflections on the Development over the last 150 Years," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 423-445, June.
    12. Schoder, Christian, 2020. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-132.
    13. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    14. Deming Luo & Stephen Ferris, 2008. "Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy with Exchange Rate Imperfections," Carleton Economic Papers 08-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    15. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    16. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Kenichi Tamegawa & Mesa Wanasilp, 2020. "Taylor Principle under Inflation Targeting in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 35-47.
    17. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    18. Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    20. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:m2cet. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.