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To change or not to change. The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England

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  • Aurélien Goutsmedt
  • Francesco Sergi
  • Béatrice Cherrier
  • Juan Acosta
  • Clément Fontan
  • François Claveau

Abstract

Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974–2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi & Béatrice Cherrier & Juan Acosta & Clément Fontan & François Claveau, 2025. "To change or not to change. The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 66-86, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:32:y:2025:i:2:p:66-86
    DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2024.2303113
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:osf:socarx:dxvfp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco, 2024. "Redefining Scientisation: Central Banks between Science and Politics," SocArXiv dxvfp, Center for Open Science.
    4. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi & Juan Acosta, 2025. "Economists, Economic Knowledge, and Central Banks," Working Papers hal-05083645, HAL.
    5. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2023. "Multi-country modelling at the commission of the European communities: Centralised and decentralised approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Laskaridis, Christina, 2025. "Hierarchies of expertise and the early days of research at the World Bank," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127951, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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