Misperception and Accountability in Polarized Societies

This paper examines how voters' perceptions of other voters influence their voting behavior. We first document substantial misperceptions regarding others’ attitudes toward political malfeasance by incumbent politicians: some voters, particularly those who support the malfeasant incumbent’s party, hold more lenient views, perceiving others as more tolerant of political corruption. In contrast, voters who support opposition parties and those without strong partisan affiliations tend to hold more stringent views. Using an online survey experiment, we provide information about prevailing social norms of intolerance toward corruption. We find that the treatment increases voter turnout and the likelihood of voting for an opposition candidate, particularly among voters with stringent prior beliefs. However, we also observe a backfire effect among those with more lenient views. This study underscores the critical role of voters' perceptions of others in shaping vote decisions and offers insights into how political accountability can be promoted in a world of rising political polarization.