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Beyond Random Causes: Harmonic Analyis of Business Cycles at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute

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  • Franco, Marco Paulo Vianna
  • Ribeiro, Leonardo Costa
  • da Motta e Albuquerque, Eduardo

Abstract

This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles and its ability to both decompose and build cycles, as received at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It traces how the Fourier transform arrived at the Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore, in the works and actions of Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov, and Nikolai Kondratiev, ultimately leading to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes. Although the evidence does not warrant the assumption that there was an orchestrated effort at the Institute to push forward a research agenda on harmonic analysis of business cycles, it certainly unfolded as more than the summation of random events and individual incursions. Moreover, the Institute as a whole could have produced much more on this matter if it had escaped Stalinist oppression for at least a few more years.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco, Marco Paulo Vianna & Ribeiro, Leonardo Costa & da Motta e Albuquerque, Eduardo, 2021. "Beyond Random Causes: Harmonic Analyis of Business Cycles at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute," OSF Preprints 6aesk, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6aesk
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/6aesk
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moore, Henry Ludwell, 1914. "Economics Cycles: Their law and cause," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number moore1914.
    2. Vincent Barnett, 1995. "A long wave goodbye: Kondrat'ev and the Conjuncture institute, 1920–28," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 413-441.
    3. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    4. Mauro Boianovsky & Hans-Michael Trautwein, 2007. "Johan Åkerman vs. Ragnar Frisch on Quantitative Business Cycle Analysis," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 487-517.
    5. Turner, Paul & Wood, Justine, 2020. "New Perspectives On Henry Ludwell Moore’S Use Of Harmonic Analysis," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 507-520, December.
    6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Philip Mirowski, 1990. "Problems in the Paternity of Econometrics: Henry Ludwell Moore," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 587-609, Winter.
    8. Thomas F. Cargill, 1974. "Early Applications of Spectral Methods to Economic Time Series," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Groot, E.A. & Segers, R. & Prins, D., 2022. "Non-resonating cycles in a dynamic model for investment behavior," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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