IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsr/escoed/escoe-dp-2021-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comparison of Business Cycle Extraction Methods: Application to the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Kanya Paramaguru

Abstract

This paper seeks to expand the discussion surrounding the dating of UK business cycles. Two different time-series filters are applied to UK output time-series to investigate what they would imply for the creation of any official recession dates. The NBER has a business cycles dating committee that investigates the dates of turning points in US business cycle providing a consolidation of business cycle dates for the US. There is, at present, no analogous committee or consolidation on UK turning points dates. There is a broad definition adopted in the UK that defines a recession as two or more periods with negative growth. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses a series of real GDP (deflated GDP) and then observes two or more periods of negative growth to define a recessions. 2020 has certainly provided an interesting critique to this broad definition, whereby the second quarter of 2020 so a -20 per cent in GDP but then the next quarter recovered by 12 per cent therefore only categorising the first half of 2020 as a recession. However, the decline in economic output within the UK has been more notable than other business cycle recession in recent decades. The aim of this paper is to continue the discussion on defining the turning points of UK business cycles. This study looks at two filters and how they would define UK business cycles. Although the merits of the filters are discussed before being used in estimation. Based on the outcomes of the business cycle dates, the filters that produce the most reasonable results are defined as a better approach. Reasonable approach is defined as one that matches the theory as to how often peaks and troughs can reasonably expected to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanya Paramaguru, 2021. "A Comparison of Business Cycle Extraction Methods: Application to the UK," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-19, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/22150033/ESCoE-DP-2021-19-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Other publications TiSEM 1dd22a17-bed0-4e7c-a2c1-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herwartz, H. & Xu, F., 2010. "A functional coefficient model view of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-54, February.
    2. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    3. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    4. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
    6. Atanasov, Victoria, 2021. "Unemployment and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Iqbal, Javed & Mahmood, Fatima & Nosheen, Misbah & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth of India: An application of Hodrick–Prescott filter technique," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 809-823.
    8. Małgorzata Porada Rochoń, 2021. "Convergence in Green Growth as the Key to Fighting Climate Change, 1990–2019," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    10. Artis, Michael, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 90-95, October.
    11. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A., 2020. "Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Yahya, Farzan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Disentangling the asymmetric effect of financialization on the green output gap," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Andrián, Leandro & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Urrea, Ivan Leonardo & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Fiscal rules and economic cycles: Quality (always) Matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    15. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
    16. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Matteo Barigozzi & Claudio Lissona & Matteo Luciani, 2024. "Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2348, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Artis, Michael & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6686, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business fluctuations; cycles; policy coordination; time-series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ESCoE Centre Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/escoeuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.