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A Moment of Time: Reliability in Route Choice using Stated Preference


  • Nebiyou Tilahun
  • David Levinson

    () (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)


Understanding how reliability is valued is important because it provides insight to how aims of policies that aspire to provide better transport options can be more fully integrated with user expectations. In this study we derive a choice model for work commute trips that trades off alternatives based on the most frequent experience that users had on that route and the possibility of late or early arrival if they use a particular route. The idea of reliability is incorporated by how far the expected lateness or early arrival is from the most frequent experience on that route. We find that on route decisions the mode travel time is valued at $7.43 per hour while reduction from the magnitude of average lateness (thereby increasing the reliability of the route) is valued at $6.91 per hour.

Suggested Citation

  • Nebiyou Tilahun & David Levinson, 2006. "A Moment of Time: Reliability in Route Choice using Stated Preference," Working Papers 201004, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:momentoftime

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Louviere,Jordan J. & Hensher,David A. & Swait,Joffre D., 2000. "Stated Choice Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521788304.
    2. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1998. "Simulating travel reliability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 535-564, September.
    3. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-479, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Theo Arentze & Tao Feng & Harry Timmermans & Jops Robroeks, 2012. "Context-dependent influence of road attributes and pricing policies on route choice behavior of truck drivers: results of a conjoint choice experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(6), pages 1173-1188, November.
    2. Nikhil Sikka & Paul Hanley, 2013. "What do commuters think travel time reliability is worth? Calculating economic value of reducing the frequency and extent of unexpected delays," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(5), pages 903-919, September.
    3. Tyler Patterson & David Levinson, 2008. "Lexus Lanes or Corolla Lanes? Spatial Use and Equity Patterns on the I-394 MnPASS Lanes," Working Papers 000051, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    4. Carlos Carrion & David Levinson, 2012. "Route choice dynamics after a link restoration," Working Papers 000105, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    5. Nebiyou Tilahun & David Levinson, 2013. "Selfishness and altruism in the distribution of travel time and income," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(5), pages 1043-1061, September.
    6. Sandip Chakrabarti & Genevieve Giuliano, 2014. "Does service reliability influence transit patronage? Evidence from Los Angeles, and implications for transit policy," Working Paper 9297, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    7. Pavithra Parthasarathi & Anupam Srivastava & Nikolas Geroliminis & David Levinson, 2011. "The importance of being early," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 227-247, March.
    8. Hongcheng Gan & Yang Bai, 2014. "The effect of travel time variability on route choice decision: a generalized linear mixed model based analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 339-350, March.

    More about this item


    Travel time reliability; Stated preference; Late Penalty; Early Penalty;

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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