IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7389.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty and the Disappearance of International Credit

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Nancy P. Marion

Abstract

We show that increased uncertainty about the size of an emerging market's external debt has a nonlinear and potentially large adverse effect on the supply of international credit offered to them. We also show that if international creditors are first- order risk averse, attaching greater weight to utility derived from bad outcomes than from good ones, a moderate increase in uncertainty about debt overhang or about other relevant factors affecting repayment prospects-- can cause the supply of credit to dry up completely. We therefore offer one possible explanation for why emerging markets may find themselves suddenly cut off from international capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Disappearance of International Credit," NBER Working Papers 7389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7389
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7389.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith, 2001. "Anticipated and Actual Bequests," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 357-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    3. Robert E. Lipsey, 1999. "Foreign Production by U.S. Firms and Parent Firm Employment," NBER Working Papers 7357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David C. King & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1999. "Congressional Vote Options," NBER Working Papers 7342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Serhan Cevik & Richard D. F. Harris & Fatih Yilmaz, 2017. "Soft power and exchange rate volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 271-288, December.
    2. Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Optimal currency crises A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 231-238, December.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "Financial sector inefficiencies and the debt Laffer curve," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Theo S Eicher & Uwe Walz & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversals:," Working Papers 0003, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    5. Emmanuel Buabeng & Enock Kojo Ayesu & Opoku Adabor, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Performance of Manufacturing Firms: An Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Economics Literature, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 133-147, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 2005. "On the Design of Hierarchies: Coordination versus Specialization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 675-702, August.
    2. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
    3. B. Douglas Bernheim & Lorenzo Forni & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "The adequacy of life insurance: evidence from the health and retirement survey," Working Papers (Old Series) 9914, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.
    5. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, March.
    6. Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2017. "Hyperinflation: Inflation Tax and Economic Policy Regime," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation, chapter 0, pages 61-75, Springer.
    7. Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-29.
    8. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    9. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Shioji, Etsuro, 2006. "Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 569-589, December.
    13. Eden, Benjamin, 2007. "Inefficient trade patterns: Excessive trade, cross-hauling and dumping," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 175-188, September.
    14. Pica Giovanni, 2010. "Capital Markets Integration and Labor Market Institutions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-57, March.
    15. Hiroshi Fujiki & Edward J. Green & Akira Yamazaki, 1999. "Sharing the risk of settlement failure," Working Papers 594, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/765 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Dongwon Lee & Yu-chin Chen, 2014. "What Makes a Commodity Currency?," Working Papers 201420, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    22. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    23. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.