IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5913.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reinsurance for Catastrophes and Cataclysms

Author

Listed:
  • David M. Cutler
  • Richard J. Zeckhauser

Abstract

This paper examines the optimal design of insurance and reinsurance policies. We first consider reinsurance for catastrophes: risks which are large for any one insurer but not for the reinsurance market as a whole. Reinsurance for catastrophes is complicated by adverse selection. Optimal reinsurnace in the presence of adverse selection depends critically on the source of information asymmetry. When information on the probability of a loss is private but the magnitude of the loss is public optimal reinsurance employs a deductible-style deductible-style excess-of-loss policy, and when is is private but the proba- bility of a loss is common, optimal reinsurance covers small and large risks, but makes the primary insurer responsible for moderate risks. There is a dramatic divergence between these designs, which suggests that traditional approaches to design may be misguided. We then consider reinsurance for cata- clysms: risks that are so large that a loss can threaten the solvency of re- insurance such as a major earthquake, while others derive from common risks-changes in conditions that affect many individuals-such as the liability revolution or or escalating medical care costs. We argue that cataclysms must be reinsured in either broad securities markets or by the government. Beyond their one- period loss potential, cataclysms pose another risk: risk levels change over time. A simulation model traces the implications of evolving risk levels for long-term patterns of losses and premiums, where the latter reflect learning learning about loss distributions. Premium risk emerges as an important part of risk, which reinsurance and primary insurance markets do not adequately diversify."

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Cutler & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1997. "Reinsurance for Catastrophes and Cataclysms," NBER Working Papers 5913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5913
    Note: AP PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5913.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomas Philipson & John Cawley, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Information Barriers to Trade in Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 827-846, September.
    2. David Cummins & Christopher Lewis & Richard Phillips, 1999. "Pricing Excess-of-Loss Reinsurance Contracts against Cat as trophic Loss," NBER Chapters, in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 93-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cochrane, John H, 1995. "Time-Consistent Health Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 445-473, June.
    4. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    5. Sara Borden & Asani Sarkar, 1996. "Securitizing property catastrophe risk," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Aug).
    6. Kaplow, Louis, 1991. "Incentives and Government Relief for Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 167-175, April.
    7. Pratt, John W & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1989. "The Impact of Risk Sharing on Efficient Decision," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 219-234, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Lewis, 2010. "Reinsurers as financial intermediaries in the market for catastrophic risk," DNB Occasional Studies 802, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    3. Skees, Jerry & Hazell, P. B. R. & Miranda, Mario, 1999. "New approaches to crop yield insurance in developing countries:," EPTD discussion papers 55, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Skees, Jerry R., 2000. "A role for capital markets in natural disasters: a piece of the food security puzzle," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 365-378, June.
    5. Jakob Eberl & Darko Jus, 2012. "Evaluating policies to attain the optimal exposure to nuclear risk," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/50, European University Institute.
    6. Sabine Lemoyne de Forges & Ruben Bibas & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2001. "A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : Resilience and e fficiency in the global reinsurance market," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00800460, HAL.
    7. W. J. W. Botzen & J. C. J. M. Van Den Bergh, 2008. "Insurance Against Climate Change and Flooding in the Netherlands: Present, Future, and Comparison with Other Countries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 413-426, April.
    8. Cheung, Ka Chun & Phillip Yam, Sheung Chi & Yuen, Fei Lung & Zhang, Yiying, 2020. "Concave distortion risk minimizing reinsurance design under adverse selection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 155-165.
    9. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    10. David M. Cutler & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1998. "Adverse Selection in Health Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 1, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. World Bank, 2003. "Financing Rapid Onset Natural Disaster Losses in India : A Risk Management Approach," World Bank Publications - Reports 14649, The World Bank Group.
    12. Marcel A.P.M. van Asseldonk & Miranda P.M. Meuwissen & Ruud B.M. Huirne, 2002. "Belief in Disaster Relief and the Demand for a Public-Private Insurance Program," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 196-207.
    13. Eberl, Jakob & Jus, Darko, 2012. "The year of the cat: Taxing nuclear risk with the help of capital markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 364-373.
    14. Torben Andersen, 2001. "Managing Economic Exposures of Natural Disasters: Exploring Alternative Financial Risk Management Opportunities and Instruments," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8934, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Harrington, Scott E. & Niehaus, Greg, 2003. "Capital, corporate income taxes, and catastrophe insurance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 365-389, October.
    16. Tan, Ken Seng & Wei, Pengyu & Wei, Wei & Zhuang, Sheng Chao, 2020. "Optimal dynamic reinsurance policies under a generalized Denneberg’s absolute deviation principle," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 345-362.
    17. Glismann, Hans H. & Schrader, Klaus, 2001. "Ein funktionstüchtiges System privater Arbeitslosenversicherung," Kiel Working Papers 1076, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Unknown, 1999. "Policy Reform, Market Stability, And Food Security; Proceedings Of A Conference Of The International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium," 1998: Policy Reform, Market Stability, and Food Security Conference, June 1998, Alexandria VA 14538, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    19. Meuwissen, Miranda P. M. & Van Asseldonk, Marcel A. P. M. & Huirne, Ruud B. M., 2003. "Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 305-322.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Yi Yao, 2017. "Between-Group Adverse Selection: Evidence From Group Critical Illness Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(2), pages 771-809, June.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5369 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2021. "Entry-Proofness and Discriminatory Pricing under Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2623-2659, August.
    4. Gan, Li & Huang, Feng & Mayer, Adalbert, 2015. "A simple test for private information in insurance markets with heterogeneous insurance demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 197-200.
    5. Michael Hoy & Afrasiab Mirza & Asha Sadanand, 2021. "Guaranteed renewable life insurance under demand uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 131-159, March.
    6. Tomas Philipson & John Cawley, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Information Barriers to Trade in Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 827-846, September.
    7. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    8. Marcus C. Christiansen & Martin Eling & Jan-Philipp Schmidt & Lorenz Zirkelbach, 2016. "Who is Changing Health Insurance Coverage? Empirical Evidence on Policyholder Dynamics," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 269-300, June.
    9. Coelho, Marta & de Meza, David, 2012. "Do bad risks know it? Experimental evidence on optimism and adverse selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 168-171.
    10. Michael Hoy & Julia Witt, 2007. "Welfare Effects of Banning Genetic Information in the Life Insurance Market: The Case of BRCA1/2 Genes," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 523-546, September.
    11. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Mark R. Cullen, 2010. "Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 877-921.
    12. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Nieuwerburgh & Motohiro Yogo, 2016. "Health and Mortality Delta: Assessing the Welfare Cost of Household Insurance Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 957-1010, April.
    13. Torben Andersen, 2001. "Managing Economic Exposures of Natural Disasters: Exploring Alternative Financial Risk Management Opportunities and Instruments," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8934, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Peter Arcidiacono & Esteban M. Aucejo & Hanming Fang & Kenneth I. Spenner, 2011. "Does affirmative action lead to mismatch? A new test and evidence," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 303-333, November.
    15. Hanming Fang & Michael P. Keane & Dan Silverman, 2008. "Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 303-350, April.
    16. Cutler, David M. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2000. "The anatomy of health insurance," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 563-643, Elsevier.
    17. Raj Chetty & Amy Finkelstein, 2012. "Social Insurance: Connecting Theory to Data," NBER Working Papers 18433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Keane, Michael & Stavrunova, Olena, 2016. "Adverse selection, moral hazard and the demand for Medigap insurance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 62-78.
    19. Xi Wu & Li Gan, 2023. "Multiple dimensions of private information in life insurance markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2145-2180, November.
    20. Hanming Fang & Zenan Wu, 2018. "Multidimensional private information, market structure, and insurance markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(3), pages 751-787, September.
    21. Wu, T.C. Michael & Yang, C.C., 2012. "The welfare effect of income tax deductions for losses as insurance: Insured- versus insurer-sided adverse selection," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2641-2645.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.