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Should the Holding Period Matter for the Intertemporal Consumption-BasedCAPM?

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  • Karen K. Lewis

Abstract

Empirical studies of the restrictions implied by the intertemporal capital asset pricing model across different asset markets have found conflicting evidence. In general, restrictions from this model have been rejected over short holding periods, but not over longer holding periods such as a quarter. This paper asks whether an auxiliary assumption implicit in these tests could be responsible for the observed pattern of rejections. The auxiliary assumption requires that covariances of returns with consumption move in constant proportion over time. The paper first describes how this condition may break down within the context of a general equilibrium pricing relationship. Then, the condition is tested empirically using data on foreign exchange, bonds, and equity returns. Interestingly, the pattern of consumption covariances in foreign exchange and bonds indeed match the pattern of rejection in the intertemporal asset pricing relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen K. Lewis, 1991. "Should the Holding Period Matter for the Intertemporal Consumption-BasedCAPM?," NBER Working Papers 3583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    4. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    5. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Expectations and Volatility of Consumption and Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 207-232.
    6. Giovannini, Alberto, 1989. "Uncertainty and liquidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 239-258, March.
    7. Labadie, Pamela, 1989. "Stochastic inflation and the equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-298, September.
    8. Lewis, Karen K, 1990. " The Behavior of Eurocurrency Returns across Different Holding Periods and Monetary Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1211-1236, September.
    9. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
    10. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    11. Cumby, Robert E., 1990. "Consumption risk and international equity returns: some empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 182-192, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Josev, Thomas, 1997. "The impact of the return interval on the estimation of systematic risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, July.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January.
    4. Janusz Brzeszczyński & Jerzy Gajdka & Tomasz Schabek, 2011. "The Role of Stock Size and Trading Intensity in the Magnitude of the "Interval Effect" in Beta Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Polish Capital Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 28-49, January.
    5. Eunhee Lee & Chang Kim & In-Moo Kim, 2015. "Equity premium over different investment horizons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1169-1187, May.
    6. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global asset pricing," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 88, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Peso Problems and Heterogeneous Trading: Evidence from Excess Returns in Foreign Exchange and Euromarkets," Working Papers 92-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Paul Harrison & Harold H. Zhang, "undated". "Cyclical Variation in the Risk and Return Relation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Janusz Brzeszczyński & Jerzy Gajdka & Tomasz Schabek, 2011. "The Role of Stock Size and Trading Intensity in the Magnitude of the "Interval Effect" in Beta Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Polish Capital Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 28-49, January.
    10. Nucci, Francesco, 2003. "Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 183-200, February.
    11. Lewis, Karen K., 1997. "Are countries with official international restrictions 'liquidity constrained'?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1079-1109, June.
    12. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1997. "Testing the conditional CAPM and the effect of intervaling: A note," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 527-537, December.
    13. Kim, Heon-Goo & Oh, Jeong Hun, 2004. "The role of IT on the Korean economy under IMF control," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 181-190, February.

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