Climate Tipping Points and Solar Geoengineering
We study optimal climate policy when climate tipping points and solar geoengineering are present. Solar geoengineering reduces temperatures without reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate tipping points are irreversible and uncertain events that cause large damages. We analyze three different rules related to the availability of solar geoengineering: a ban, using solar geoengineering as insurance against the risk of tipping points, or using solar geoengineering only as remediation in the aftermath of a tipping point. We model three distinct types of tipping points: two that alter the climate system and one that yields a direct economic cost. Using an analytic model, we find that an optimal policy, which minimizes expected losses from the tipping point, includes both emissions reductions and solar geoengineering from the onset. Using a numerical simulation model, we quantify optimal policy and various outcomes under the alternative scenarios. The presence of tipping points leads to more mitigation and more solar geoengineering use and lower temperatures.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2015|
|Publication status:||published as Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Soheil Shayegh, 2016. "Climate Tipping Points and Solar Geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, .|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Naevdal, Eric & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2007. "The economics of the thermohaline circulation--A problem with multiple thresholds of unknown locations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 262-283, November.
- Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
- Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2013. "Geoengineering and Abatement: A “flat” Relationship under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2013.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Derek Lemoine & Christian Traeger, 2014. "Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 137-166, February.
- Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1993. "Optimal Greenhouse-Gas Reductions and Tax Policy in the "Dice" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 313-317, May.
- Yongyang Cai & Kenneth L. Judd & Thomas S. Lontzek, 2013. "The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 18704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2013.
"Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 19244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moreno-Cruz, Juan B., 2015. "Mitigation and the geoengineering threat," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 248-263.
- Naevdal, Eric, 2006. "Dynamic optimisation in the presence of threshold effects when the location of the threshold is uncertain - with an application to a possible disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1131-1158, July.
- J. Bickel & Shubham Agrawal, 2013. "Reexamining the economics of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 993-1006, August.
- Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno Cruz & Soheil Shayegh, 2015. "Solar Geoengineering, Uncertainty, and the Price of Carbon," NBER Working Papers 21355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gramstad, Kjetil & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2010. "Climate Engineering: Cost benefit and beyond," Working Papers in Economics 05/10, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
- Gramstad, Kjetil & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2010. "Climate engineering: cost benefit and beyond," MPRA Paper 27302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Juan Moreno-Cruz & David Keith, 2013. "Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 431-444, December.
- Soheil Shayegh & Valerie Thomas, 2015. "Adaptive stochastic integrated assessment modeling of optimal greenhouse gas emission reductions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Barrett, S. & Lenton, T.M. & Millner, A. & Tavoni, A. & Carpenter, S.R. & Anderies, J.M. & Chapin III, F.S. & Crépin, A.S. & Daily, G. & Ehrlich, P. & Folke, C. & Galaz, V. & Hughes, T.P. & Kautsky, N, 2014. "Climate engineering reconsidered," Other publications TiSEM 880b526e-6ba9-4e48-8463-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- David G. Victor, 2008. "On the regulation of geoengineering," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 322-336, Summer.
- Scott Barrett, 2008. "The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 45-54, January.
- Baker, Erin & Solak, Senay, 2011. "Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 442-454, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)