IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aue/wpaper/1903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty: Robust Control, Hot Spots and Learning

Author

Listed:
  • William Brock
  • Anastasios Xepapadeas

Abstract

We study climate change policies using the novel pattern scaling approach of regional transient climate response, to develop a regional economy-climate model under conditions of deep uncertainty associated with: (i) temperature dynamics, (ii) regional climate change damages, and (iii) policy in the form of carbon taxes. We analyze cooperative and noncooperative outcomes. Under deep uncertainty, robust control policies are more conservative regarding emissions, the higher the aversion to ambiguity is, while damage uncertainty seems to produce more conservative behavior than climate dynamics uncertainty. As concerns about uncertainty increase, cooperative and noncooperative policies tend to move close together. Asymmetries in concerns about uncertainty tend to produce large deviations in regional emissions policy at the noncooperative solution. We calculate the cost of robustness in terms of welfare. If aversion to ambiguity is suciently high, optimal regulation might not be possible. The result is associated with the existence of regional hot spots and temperature spillovers across regions, a situation which emerges in the real world. In such cases, deep uncertainty about the impacts of climate change makes robust regulation infeasible. We show that, if resources are devoted to learning, which reduces uncertainty concerns, robust regulation is facilitated.

Suggested Citation

  • William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty: Robust Control, Hot Spots and Learning," DEOS Working Papers 1903, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/Regional.Climate.Policy.under.Deep.Uncertainty.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naevdal, Eric & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2007. "The economics of the thermohaline circulation--A problem with multiple thresholds of unknown locations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 262-283, November.
    2. Derek Lemoine & Ivan Rudik, 2017. "Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2947-2957, October.
    3. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    4. Yongyang Cai & William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Kenneth Judd, 2018. "Climate Policy under Cooperation and Competition between Regions with Spatial Heat Transport," DEOS Working Papers 1806, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    5. Martin Leduc & H. Damon Matthews & Ramón de Elía, 2016. "Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 474-478, May.
    6. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2, December.
    8. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    9. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
    11. Hennlock, Magnus, 2009. "Robust Control in Global Warming Management: An Analytical Dynamic Integrated Assessment," Working Papers in Economics 354, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    12. David Anthoff & Richard Tol, 2013. "The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analysis using fund," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 515-530, April.
    13. Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 100-114.
    14. repec:hrv:faseco:33373343 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    16. David Anthoff & Richard Tol, 2013. "Erratum to: The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon: A decomposition analysis using fund," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 413-413, November.
    17. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
    18. Brock, William A. & Engström, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2013. "Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2371-2396.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Masako Ikefuji & Jan R. Magnus, 2020. "The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors," ISER Discussion Paper 1111, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    3. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty," DEOS Working Papers 1901, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    2. Brock, William & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2021. "Regional climate policy under deep uncertainty: robust control and distributional concerns," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 211-238, June.
    3. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2020. "Spatial Environmental and Resource Economics," DEOS Working Papers 2002, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    5. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Emmerling, Johannes, 2018. "Climate engineering under deep uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 207-224.
    6. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    7. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    8. W. A. Brock & A. Xepapadeas, 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Working Papers 2015.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Brock, W. & Xepapadeas, A., 2017. "Climate change policy under polar amplification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 93-112.
    10. Sareh Vosooghi & Maria Arvaniti & Frederick Van Der Ploeg, 2022. "Self-enforcing climate coalitions for farsighted countries: integrated analysis of heterogeneous countries," Economics Series Working Papers 971, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 749-765, March.
    12. George Economides & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2018. "Monetary Policy under Climate Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 7021, CESifo.
    13. Yongyang Cai, 2020. "The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change," Papers 2003.01615, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    14. Nguyen, Minh Duc & Ancev, Tiho & Randall, Alan, 2020. "Forest governance and economic values of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    15. Christos Karydas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Climate change risks: pricing and portfolio allocation," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/327, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    16. Jussi Lintunen & Lauri Vilmi, 2021. "Optimal Emission Prices Over the Business Cycles," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 135-167, September.
    17. Zhang, Hong & Jin, Gui & Zhang, Zhengyu, 2021. "Coupling system of carbon emission and social economy: A review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    19. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional temperature anomalies; Deep uncertainty; Cooperative solution solutions; Robust Open Loop Nash Equilibrium; Cost of Robustness; Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diauegr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ekaterini Glynou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diauegr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.