IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20200046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors

Author

Listed:
  • Masako Ikefuji

    (University of Tsukuba)

  • Jan R. Magnus

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3.0-4.0 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Masako Ikefuji & Jan R. Magnus, 2020. "The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-046/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/20046.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. In Hwang & Frédéric Reynès & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(3), pages 415-436, November.
    2. Magne Aldrin & Marit Holden & Peter Guttorp & Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie & Gunnar Myhre & Terje Koren Berntsen, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 253-271, May.
    3. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
    4. Roger M Cooke & Bruce Wielicki, 2018. "Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 541-554, December.
    5. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty: Robust Control, Hot Spots and Learning," DEOS Working Papers 1903, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Revealed prior; climate sensitivity; IPCC;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.