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Gravity Chains: Estimating Bilateral Trade Flows When Parts And Components Trade Is Important

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  • Richard Baldwin
  • Daria Taglioni

Abstract

Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of the value added flows. This fact has important implications for the estimation of the gravity equation. We present empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. We also provide a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explaining trade where international supply chains are important.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16672.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Publication status: published as Daria Taglioni & Richard Baldwin, 2014. "Gravity chains: Estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 61-82, November.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16672
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  • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
  • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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  13. Salvatore Baldone & Fabio Sdogati & Lucia Tajoli, 2006. "On some effects of international fragmentation of production on comparative advantages, trade flows, and the income of countries," KITeS Working Papers 187, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2006.
  14. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter, 2007. "Outsourcing and trade in a spatial world," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 441-470, November.
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  17. Dr. Mitsuyo ANDO & Dr. Fukunari Kimura, 2009. "Fragmentation in East Asia: Further Evidence," Working Papers DP-2009-20, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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Cited by:

  1. Bosker, Maarten & Westbrock, Bastian, 2014. "A theory of trade in a global production network," CEPR Discussion Papers 9870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Figueiredo, Erik & Lima, Luiz Renato & Loures, Alexandre & Oliveira, Celina, 2014. "Uma Análise para o Efeito-Fronteira no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(4).
  3. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2012. "On the measurement of trade costs: direct vs. indirect approaches to quantifying standards and technical regulations," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 401-414, July.
  4. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Leticia Blázquez & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2012. "Eu Integration And Production Networks," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 20(3), pages 5-24, Winter.
  6. Joachim Guilhoto & Jean-Marc Siroën & Ayçil Yücer, 2015. "The gravity model, global value chain and the brazilian states," Working Papers DT/2015/02, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  7. Andrea Beltramello & Koen De Backer & Laurent Moussiegt, 2012. "The Export Performance of Countries within Global Value Chains (GVCs)," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2012/2, OECD Publishing.
  8. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  9. Olayinka Idowu Kareem, 2014. "The European Union Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Africa’s Exports," RSCAS Working Papers 2014/98, European University Institute.
  10. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2016. "Foreign languages and trade: evidence from a natural experiment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 31-49, February.
  11. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Siroën, Jean-Marc & Yucer, Ayçil, 2013. "Internal and International Vertical Specialization– Estimations For Brazil and new Approach to Gravity Models," MPRA Paper 46897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Juan S. Blyde & Christian Volpe Martincus & Danielken Molina, 2014. "Fábricas sincronizadas: América Latina y el Caribe en la era de las Cadenas Globales de Valor," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 86755 edited by Juan S. Blyde, September.
  13. Fabien CANDAU & Florent DEISTING & Julie SCHLICK, 2016. "How Income and Crowding Effects influence the World Market for French Wines," Working Papers 2015-2016_8, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Mar 2016.
  14. Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2011. "Production sharing and trade flows: A comparative analysis of Japan and the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 383-397, October.
  15. Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2011. "The People’s Republic of China’s Currency and Product Fragmentation," ADBI Working Papers 327, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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