IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0892.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Replacing the U.S. Income Tax with a Progressive Consumption Tax: A Sequenced General Equilibrium Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Don Fullerton
  • John B. Shoven
  • John Whalley

Abstract

This paper examines the welfare consequences of changing the current U.S. income tax system to a progressive consumption tax. We compute a sequence of single period equilibria in which savings decisions depend on the expected future return to capital. In the presence of existing income taxes, the U.S. economy is assumed to lie on a balanced growth path. With the change to a consumption tax, individuals save more and initially consume less. As the capital stock grows, consumption eventually overtakes that of the original path, and the economy approaches the new balanced growth path with higher consumption and a greater capital stock. Both the transition and the balanced growth paths enter our welfare evaluations. We find that the discounted present value of the stream of net gains is approximately $650 billion in 1973 dollars, just over one percent of the discounted present value of national income. Larger gains occur if further reform of capital income taxation accompanies the change. We examine the sensitivity of the results, both to the design of the consumption tax and to the values of elasticity and other parameters. The paper also contains estimates of the time required to adjust from one growth path to the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1982. "Replacing the U.S. Income Tax with a Progressive Consumption Tax: A Sequenced General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 0892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0892
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0892.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Policies," NBER Chapters,in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 6-24 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lewis, H G, 1975. "Economics of Time and Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(2), pages 29-34, May.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1974. "Incidence of a Capital Income Tax in a Growing Economy with Variable Savings Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 505-513.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1978. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation," NBER Chapters,in: Research in Taxation, pages 29-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "Capital Taxation and Accumulation in a Life Cycle Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 533-544, September.
    6. Robin Boadway, 1979. "Long-run Tax Incidence: A Comparative Dynamic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 505-511.
    7. Levhari, David & Sheshinski, Eytan, 1972. "Lifetime Excess Burden of a Tax," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(1), pages 139-147, Jan.-Feb..
    8. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans, 1978. "The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 655-685.
    10. A. B. Atkinson, 1969. "The Timescale of Economic Models: How Long is the Long Run?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 137-152.
    11. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    12. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1981. "A Note on Dynamic Tax Incidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 96(4), pages 705-723.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katherine Baicker & Jonathan Skinner, 2011. "Health Care Spending Growth and the Future of U.S. Tax Rates," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 39-68.
    2. Don Fullerton, 1983. "Which Effective Tax Rate?," NBER Working Papers 1123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, May.
    4. Tessa Conroy & Harvey Cutler & Stephan Weiler, 2016. "The State-Level Impacts of Enforcing Sales Taxes for E-retail Purchases," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 276-295, June.
    5. Lin, Shuanglin, 2008. "China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 197-214, June.
    6. Ahmed, S., 2004. "Modelling corporate tax liabilities using company accounts: a new framework," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0412, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. James Alm & Asmaa El-Ganainy, 2013. "Value-added taxation and consumption," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 105-128, February.
    8. Lin, Shuanglin, 1999. "Tax reform and external balance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 891-909, December.
    9. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    10. Antón, Arturo & Boyd, Roy & Elizondo, Alejandra & Ibarrarán, María Eugenia, 2016. "Universal social insurance for Mexico: Modeling of a financing scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 838-850.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "Social accounting matrices and applied general equilibrium models," Working Papers 563, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Ballard, Charles L. & Kang, Kiwon, 2003. "International ramifications of US tax-policy changes," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 825-835, November.
    13. Gordon, Roger H., 1989. "Notes on cash - flow taxation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 210, The World Bank.
    14. Johannes Bröcker & Martin Schneider, 2002. "How Does Economic Development in Eastern Europe Affect Austria's Regions? A Multiregional General Equilibrium Framework," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 257-285.
    15. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00861 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0892. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.