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Aging, labour market dynamics and fiscal imbalances

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Marchiori

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg)

  • Olivier Pierrard

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg)

  • Henri R. Sneessens

    (Université du Luxembourg, IZA and Universite catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

Population aging is a phenomenon common to all regions in the developed world, forcing most governments to implement structural reforms in order to avoid the development of fiscal imbalances. In Luxembourg, large inflows of – young – foreign workers generate an apparently sound public pension system, although no major structural reform has been implemented yet. In this paper, we study the interactions between demographic changes, labour market dynamics and public finance, by building an overlapping generations structure with New Open Macroeconomics and labour market frictions à la Diamond- Mortensen-Pissarides. We calibrate the model on Luxembourg data and we show that foreign labour inflows are a palliative but not a long term solution to the fiscal consequences of aging, and that only deep – and unpopular – fiscal reforms could solve the expected deficit problem. We also show that without foreign trade, foreign labour inflows would increase the domestic unemployment rate. This underlines the need to combine in a single framework the NOEM and the search and matching approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Marchiori & Olivier Pierrard & Henri R. Sneessens, 2012. "Aging, labour market dynamics and fiscal imbalances," NBP Working Papers 122, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:122
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    File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/122_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
    3. Pierrard, Olivier, 2008. "Commuters, residents and job competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 565-577, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overlapping Generations; Aging; Fiscal Imbalances;

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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