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A Structuralist Model of the Small Open Economy in the Short, Medium and Long Run

Author

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  • Hian Teck Hoon

    () (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

  • Edmund S Phelps

    () (Columbia University)

Abstract

Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades—the ’80s shock to Europe from the sharp increase of external real interest rates; the kind of speculative shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the ’90s: the prospect of new industries emerging in the future with needs for new capital; and what may have been an important shock in the U.S.: the large Kennedy cut in income taxes in 1964? We first indicate that the effects of these shocks on the open economy are not well captured by either the standard Keynesian model or the standard neoclassical theory. Next we provide a careful development of a nonmonetary model of the equilibrium path of the real exchange rate, share price level,as well as natural output, employment and interest that contains “trading frictions” of the customer-market type. We then examine its implications for the above kinds of shocks not only over the medium run but over the short run and the long run as well. The structuralist model we develop also provides an explanation for the dollar’s weakening and accompanying decline in U.S. employment from early 2002 to late 2004 (and prediction of subsequent recovery) resting on belated apprehensions over the scheduled explosion over future decades of Medicare and Social Security outlays for the baby boomers and alarm over the large tax cuts enacted in spite of this prospect.

Suggested Citation

  • Hian Teck Hoon & Edmund S Phelps, 2005. "A Structuralist Model of the Small Open Economy in the Short, Medium and Long Run," Working Papers 09-2005, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:09-2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2007. "A structuralist model of the small open economy in the short, medium and long run," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-254, June.
    2. Phelps Edmund S., 2010. "The Slump, the Recovery and the "New Normal"," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Faria, Joao Ricardo & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Real exchange rate and employment performance in an open economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 67-80, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structuralist model; share price; real exchange rate; employment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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