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A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008


  • Alex Olssen

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Wei Zhang

    () (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)

  • David Evison

    () (New Zealand School of Forestry, University of Canterbury)

  • Suzi Kerr

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)


In this paper, we construct a dataset of annual expected forest profits in New Zealand from 1990–2008 at a fine spatial resolution. We do not include land values in any of our profit calculations. We estimate four measures of expected forest profits based around net present value (NPV), land expectation value (LEV), equal annual equivalent (EAE), and internal rate of return (IRR). Our estimates of expected profits are based on the assumption that land owners form their expectations adaptively; that is, they use recent data on prices and costs to form expectations. We illustrate our data by showing regional variation in each of our measures, changes over time in NPV on land in forest in 2008, and variation in NPV over space in 2008. The final dataset, working datasets, and the code used in this work are publicly available to the research community and can be accessed from the authors’ website:

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Olssen & Wei Zhang & David Evison & Suzi Kerr, 2012. "A Forest-Profit Expectations Dataset for New Zealand, 1990–2008," Working Papers 12_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:12_07

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
    2. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
    3. Parks Peter J., 1995. "Explaining Irrational Land Use: Risk Aversion and Marginal Agricultural Land," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 34-47, January.
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    More about this item


    Forestry; expected profits; expected investment returns; New Zealand; dataset;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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