Opportunities and challenges to community-level adoption of natural climate solutions in Washington State

Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) are climate mitigation approaches that aim to incorporate sustainable practices in forest, agriculture, wetland, and grassland management to increase GHG mitigation from land sectors and have been estimated to be highly effective from global to local scales. As more state and local governments seek to address climate change using a range of available techniques, the potential of NCS has gained increasing attention. As NCS directly involves land management by a range of actors (such as farmers and landowners) operating within resource-dependent communities (such as those dependent on the forest sector), it also has the potential to significantly alter the socioeconomic conditions and opportunities for these communities, necessitating a critical assessment of how NCS implementation interacts with socioeconomic systems. In this work, we focus on the implementation of NCS in Washington State to support its 2050 net-zero goals. Using a novel research approach, we compare recently estimated NCS potentials along multiple pathways with estimates of county-level socioeconomic sensitivities, exposures, and adaptive capacities to NCS-related changes and highlight the potential challenges that exist. These challenges can significantly limit the estimated GHG reduction and ecosystem co-benefits from NCS if they are implemented without due consideration of potential social interactions. We outline policies that can supplement NCS implementation to support just and equitable approaches that contribute to resilient communities and enhance human wellbeing while mitigating GHG emissions from the natural lands of Washington state.