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Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU

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  • Nicoletta Batini
  • Jennifer Greenslade

Abstract

This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural changes in the labour market and favourable supply shocks may have had a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta Batini & Jennifer Greenslade, 2003. "Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU," Discussion Papers 12, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:12
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    Cited by:

    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "The (Ir)Relevance Of The Nru For Policy Making: The Case Of Denmark," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 369-392, July.
    2. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    4. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli, 2010. "The European Unemployment Gap and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1346-1358.
    5. George Chouliarakis, 2009. "Coping With Uncertainty: Historical And Real-Time Estimates Of The Natural Unemployment Rate And The Uk Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(4), pages 479-511, July.
    6. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    8. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
    9. Wolfgang Pollan, "undated". "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
    10. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
    11. Charles Harvie & Hyeon-Seung Huh, 2009. "A New Measure Of Us Potential Output, Inflation Forecasts, And Monetary Policy Rules," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(5), pages 611-631, September.

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