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Is Neo-Fisherian ‘alive’ in South Africa? A frequency domain causality approach

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  • Andrew Phiri

    (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)

Abstract

There is a new wave of monetary thought popularized in industrialized economies going under the banner of Neo-Fisherism. Proponents of this school of thought assume that there exists reverse causality in the conventional Fisher effect in which interest rates cause movements in expected inflation instead of interest rates being driven by inflation expectations. We examine whether the Neo-Fisherian hypothesis holds for the South African economy as an inflation-targeting emerging economy characterized by moderate inflation and policy rates. Using frequency domain causality tests on quarterly repo rate and inflation expectations data collected between 2002:q3 and 2019:q2, we find evidence of uni-directional causality from repo rates to inflation expectations over the short- and long-run. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is Neo-Fisherian ‘alive’ in South Africa? A frequency domain causality approach," Working Papers 1911, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnd:wpaper:1911
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neo-fisher effect; interest rates; inflation expectations; South Africa; emerging economies; spectral causality tests.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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