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Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics

Author

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  • Tolga Cenesizoglu
  • Georges Dionne
  • Xiaozhou Zhou

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze whether the state of the limit order book affects future price movements in line with what recent theoretical models predict. We do this in a linear vector autoregressive system which includes midquote return, trade direction and variables that are theoretically motivated and capture different dimensions of the information embedded in the limit order book. We find that different measures of depth and slope of bid and ask sides as well as their ratios cause returns to change in the next transaction period in line with the predictions of Goettler, Parlour, and Rajan (2009) and Kalay and Wohl (2009). Limit order book variables also have significant long term cumulative effects on midquote return, which is stronger and takes longer to be fully realized for variables based on higher levels of the book. In a simple high frequency trading exercise, we show that it is possible in some cases to obtain economic gains from the statistical relation between limit order book variables and midquote return.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolga Cenesizoglu & Georges Dionne & Xiaozhou Zhou, 2014. "Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 1426, CIRPEE.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1426
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    File URL: http://www.cirpee.org/fileadmin/documents/Cahiers_2014/CIRPEE14-26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-1689, December.
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    7. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. "Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-1161, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2017. "Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1705.03233, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High frequency limit order book; High frequency trading; High frequency transaction price; Asset price; Midquote return; High frequency return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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