IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/crcrmw/2014_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Cenesizoglu, Tolga

    (HEC Montreal, Department of Finance)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Zhou, Xiaozhou

    (Université du Québec à Montréal)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze whether the state of the limit order book affects future price movements in line with what recent theoretical models predict. We do this in a linear vector autoregressive system which includes midquote return, trade direction and variables that are theoretically motivated and capture different dimensions of the information embedded in the limit order book. We find that different measures of depth and slope of bid and ask sides as well as their ratios cause returns to change in the next transaction period in line with the predictions of Goettler, Parlour, and Rajan (2009) and Kalay and Wohl (2009). Limit order book variables also have significant long term cumulative effects on midquote return, which is stronger and takes longer to be fully realized for variables based on higher levels of the book. In a simple high frequency trading exercise, we show that it is possible in some cases to obtain economic gains from the statistical relation between limit order book variables and midquote return.

Suggested Citation

  • Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Dionne, Georges & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2014. "Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics," Working Papers 14-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2014_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.risksresearch.com/_files/ugd/a6eed3_19a1ad1c850a4af9a7e1037c03244e23.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalay, Avner & Wohl, Avi, 2009. "Detecting Liquidity Traders," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 29-54, February.
    2. Griffiths, Mark D. & Smith, Brian F. & Turnbull, D. Alasdair S. & White, Robert W., 2000. "The costs and determinants of order aggressiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 65-88, April.
    3. Thierry Foucault & Ohad Kadan & Eugene Kandel, 2005. "Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1171-1217.
    4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    5. Héléna Beltran-Lopez & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig, 2009. "Commonalities in the order book," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(3), pages 209-242, September.
    6. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    7. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-1689, December.
    8. Ron Kaniel & Hong Liu, 2006. "So What Orders Do Informed Traders Use?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1867-1914, July.
    9. Chakravarty Sugato & Holden Craig W., 1995. "An Integrated Model of Market and Limit Orders," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 213-241, July.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2012. "The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    12. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4601-4641, November.
    13. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    15. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    16. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. "Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-1161, September.
    17. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    18. Ioanid Rosu, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of the Limit Order Book," Post-Print hal-00515873, HAL.
    19. Goettler, Ronald L. & Parlour, Christine A. & Rajan, Uday, 2009. "Informed traders and limit order markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-87, July.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1553-1583 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Magris & Mostafa Shabani & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2022. "Bayesian Bilinear Neural Network for Predicting the Mid-price Dynamics in Limit-Order Book Markets," Papers 2203.03613, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2017. "Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1705.03233, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Dionne, Georges & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of the limit order book on price dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 77-98.
    2. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    3. Daniel Havran & Kata Varadi, 2015. "Price Impact and the Recovery of the Limit Order Book: Why Should We Care About Informed Liquidity Providers?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1540, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Osler, Carol L. & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Limit-order submission strategies under asymmetric information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2665-2677, November.
    6. Danny Lo, 2015. "Essays in Market Microstructure and Investor Trading," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2015, January-A.
    7. Murphy Jun Jie Lee, 2013. "The Microstructure of Trading Processes on the Singapore Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2013, January-A.
    8. Georges Dionne & Xiaozhou Zhou, 2020. "The dynamics of ex-ante weighted spread: an empirical analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 593-617, April.
    9. Danny Lo, 2015. "Essays in Market Microstructure and Investor Trading," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 22, July-Dece.
    10. Murphy Jun Jie Lee, 2013. "The Microstructure of Trading Processes on the Singapore Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4, July-Dece.
    11. Lo, Danny K. & Hall, Anthony D., 2015. "Resiliency of the limit order book," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 222-244.
    12. Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2013. "Anonymity and order submissions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 101-118.
    13. Jain, Pawan & Jiang, Christine, 2014. "Predicting future price volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging limit order market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 72-93.
    14. Marvin Wee & Joey W. Yang, 2016. "The Evolution of Informed Liquidity Provision: Evidence from an Order†driven Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(5), pages 882-915, November.
    15. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    16. Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2010. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 57-87, Winter.
    17. Baruch, Shmuel & Panayides, Marios & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2017. "Informed trading and price discovery before corporate events," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 561-588.
    18. Dionne, Georges & Pacurar, Maria & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2015. "Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk modeling and risk management: An application to data from Deutsche Börse," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 202-219.
    19. Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "Do Dark Pools Harm Price Discovery?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 747-789.
    20. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector autoregressive model; ultra high frequency data; limit order book;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2014_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claire Boisvert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hecmtca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.