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Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Cenesizoglu, Tolga

    (HEC Montreal, Department of Finance)

  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Zhou, Xiaozhou

    (Université du Québec à Montréal)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze whether the state of the limit order book affects future price movements in line with what recent theoretical models predict. We do this in a linear vector autoregressive system which includes midquote return, trade direction and variables that are theoretically motivated and capture different dimensions of the information embedded in the limit order book. We find that different measures of depth and slope of bid and ask sides as well as their ratios cause returns to change in the next transaction period in line with the predictions of Goettler, Parlour, and Rajan (2009) and Kalay and Wohl (2009). Limit order book variables also have significant long term cumulative effects on midquote return, which is stronger and takes longer to be fully realized for variables based on higher levels of the book. In a simple high frequency trading exercise, we show that it is possible in some cases to obtain economic gains from the statistical relation between limit order book variables and midquote return.

Suggested Citation

  • Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Dionne, Georges & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2014. "Effects of the Limit Order Book on Price Dynamics," Working Papers 14-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2014_005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adamantios Ntakaris & Martin Magris & Juho Kanniainen & Moncef Gabbouj & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2017. "Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 1705.03233, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    2. Martin Magris & Mostafa Shabani & Alexandros Iosifidis, 2022. "Bayesian Bilinear Neural Network for Predicting the Mid-price Dynamics in Limit-Order Book Markets," Papers 2203.03613, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector autoregressive model; ultra high frequency data; limit order book;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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