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Sharing high growth across generations:pensions and demographic transition in China

  • Zheng Song

    (Department of Economics, University of Chicago Booth, Chicago, Illinois, United States)

  • Kjetil Storesletten

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States)

  • Yikai Wang

    (Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Fabrizio Zilibotti

    ()

    (CEPRA, Institute of Economics, Universita' della Svizzera Italiana)

Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient isuues in contemporary China. China's aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results.

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File URL: http://doc.rero.ch/lm.php?url=1000,42,6,20120917152040-LZ/CEPRA_03_2012.pdf
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Paper provided by USI Università della Svizzera italiana in its series CEPRA working paper with number 1203.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lug:wcepra:1203
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.bul.sbu.usi.ch

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  1. Chang, Tai Hsieh & Peter, J- Klenow, 2007. "Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India," MPRA Paper 35084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2002. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  4. Felix Salditt & Peter Whiteford & Willem Adema, 2007. "Pension Reform in China: Progress and Prospects," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 53, OECD Publishing.
  5. Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.
  6. Zhang, Junsen & Zhao, Yaohui & Park, Albert & Song, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 730-752, December.
  7. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. "Understanding the long-run decline in interstate migration," Working Papers 697, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
  9. William Lavely, 2001. "First Impressions from the 2000 Census of China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(4), pages 755-769.
  10. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "Social Security Pension Reform in China," NBER Working Papers 6794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "Social Security Pension Reform in China," Scholarly Articles 2794835, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Barr, Nicholas & Diamond, Peter, 2008. "Reforming Pensions: Principles and Policy Choices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195311303.
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