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Poverty Traps and Business Cycles in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy with S-shaped Law of Motion

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  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé

    (University of Copenhagen Institute of Economics)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the understanding of stochastic economic dynamics with S-shaped law of motion. Applying random dynamical systems theory, we obtain a complete analysis of a stochastic OLG growth model. In the long-run the economy converges either to a state with no capital (poverty trap) or a sample path of a random fixed point (business cycle). The threshold capital stock separating both regimes is a random variable that depends on the future realization of the shocks; this critical level cannot be identified using past observations. Supply of outside capital therefore has an uncertain effect. Policy recommendations are given which cannot be obtained employing Markov equilibria. A numerical illustration is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Poverty Traps and Business Cycles in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy with S-shaped Law of Motion," Discussion Papers 02-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0213
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazuo Nishimura & Ryszard Rudnicki & John Stachurski, 2012. "Stochastic Optimal Growth with Nonconvexities," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 261-288, Springer.
    2. Kazuo Nishimura & Ryszard Rudnicki & John Stachurski, 2004. "Stochastic Growth With Nonconvexities:The Optimal Case," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 897, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Hatjispyros, S.J. & Nicoleris, Theodoros & Walker, Stephen G., 2007. "Parameter estimation for random dynamical systems using slice sampling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 381(C), pages 71-81.
    4. Elliott, Robert J. & Chen, Zhiping & Duan, Qihong, 2009. "Insurance claims modulated by a hidden Brownian marked point process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 163-172, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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