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The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Edwards, Rebecca

    () (University of Sydney)

  • Lange, Fabian

    () (McGill University)

Abstract

Three fundamental forces have shaped labor markets over the last 50 years: the secular increase in the returns to education, educational upgrading, and the integration of large numbers of women into the workforce. We modify the Katz and Murphy (1992) framework to predict the structure of the labor market in 2030. Even though the share of educated females in the workforce will grow rapidly, the supply response will not suffice to offset the trend in demand towards skilled, female labor. Wage growth over the next 20 years will continue to favor college educated workers and in particular college educated females.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwards, Rebecca & Lange, Fabian, 2013. "The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand," IZA Discussion Papers 7825, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7825
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    2. Barry T. Hirsch & Edward J. Schumacher, 2004. "Match Bias in Wage Gap Estimates Due to Earnings Imputation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(3), pages 689-722, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Brauw, Alan & Russell, Joseph R. D, 2014. "Revisiting the labor demand curve: The wage effects of immigration and women’s entry into the US labor force, 1960–2010:," IFPRI discussion papers 1402, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage growth; trends in labor demand and supply;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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