The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand
Three fundamental forces have shaped labor markets over the last 50 years: the secular increase in the returns to education, educational upgrading, and the integration of large numbers of women into the workforce. We modify the Katz and Murphy (1992) framework to predict the structure of the labor market in 2030. Even though the share of educated females in the workforce will grow rapidly, the supply response will not suffice to offset the trend in demand towards skilled, female labor. Wage growth over the next 20 years will continue to favor college educated workers and in particular college educated females.
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- Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992.
"Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
- Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," NBER Working Papers 3927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katz, L.F. & Murphy, K.M., 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1580, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Barry T. Hirsch & Edward J. Schumacher, 2004. "Match Bias in Wage Gap Estimates Due to Earnings Imputation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(3), pages 689-722, July.
- Hirsch, Barry & Schumacher, Edward J., 2003. "Match Bias in Wage Gap Estimates Due to Earnings Imputation," IZA Discussion Papers 783, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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