IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joecin/v17y2019i3d10.1007_s10888-019-09411-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic change and the European income distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Dolls

    (Ifo Institute
    IZA Bonn)

  • Karina Doorley

    (IZA Bonn
    ESRI Dublin)

  • Alari Paulus

    (University of Essex)

  • Hilmar Schneider

    (IZA Bonn)

  • Eric Sommer

    (IZA Bonn)

Abstract

This paper assesses the effect of key demographic changes (population ageing and increasing educational attainment) that are expected by 2030 on the income distribution in the EU-27 and examines the potential of tax-benefit systems to counterbalance negative developments. Theory predicts that population ageing should increase income inequality, while the effect of upskilling is more ambiguous. Tax-benefit systems may stabilize these expected changes though this is largely an empirical question given their typically complex nature. We use a decomposition technique to isolate the effect of projected demographic change on income inequality and poverty from the reaction of the labor market to this demographic change through wage adjustments. Our results show that demographic change is likely to lead to increasing inequality while related wage adjustments work mainly in the opposite direction. Changes to projected relative poverty are minimal for most countries. With a few exceptions, EU tax-benefit systems are able to absorb most of projected increase in market income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Eric Sommer, 2019. "Demographic change and the European income distribution," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 337-357, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:17:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-019-09411-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10888-019-09411-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10888-019-09411-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10888-019-09411-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan, 2010. "Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    3. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    4. Chrysa Leventi & Holly Sutherland & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2016. "Improving poverty reduction in Europe: what works (best) where?," ImPRovE Working Papers 16/16, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    5. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    6. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    7. Bargain, Olivier & Dolls, Mathias & Immervoll, Herwig & Neumann, Dirk & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2014. "Tax policy and income inequality in the US, 1979-2007," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-001, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Doorley, Karina & Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2018. "Inequality in EU crisis countries. How effective were automatic stabilisers?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/18, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    10. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1997. "The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, February.
    11. Nolan, Brian & Salverda, Wiemer & Checchi, Daniele & Marx, Ive & McKnight, Abigail & Toth, Istvan Gy (ed.), 2014. "Changing Inequalities and Societal Impacts in Rich Countries: Thirty Countries' Experiences," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199687428.
    12. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan & Karina Doorley & Claire Keane, 2017. "Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 559-585, December.
    13. Bargain, Olivier & Dolls, Mathias & Immervoll, Herwig & Neumann, Dirk & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2011. "Tax Policy and Income Inequality in the U.S., 1978-2009: A Decomposition Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 5910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Alari PaulusBy & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland, 2017. "The design of fiscal consolidation measures in the European Union: distributional effects and implications for macro-economic recovery," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 632-654.
    15. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    16. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," Working Papers halshs-00805736, HAL.
    17. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    18. Olivier Bargain & Mathias Dolls & Herwig Immervoll & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2015. "Tax Policy And Income Inequality In The United States, 1979–2007," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 1061-1085, April.
    19. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    20. Olivier Bargain, 2012. "Decomposition analysis of distributive policies using behavioural simulations," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(5), pages 708-731, October.
    21. Herwig Immervoll & Horacio Levy & Christine Lietz & Daniela Mantovani & Holly Sutherland, 2006. "The sensitivity of poverty rates to macro-level changes in the European Union," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(2), pages 181-199, March.
    22. Edwards, Rebecca & Lange, Fabian, 2013. "The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand," IZA Discussion Papers 7825, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Omar A. Aziz & Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2015. "The distributional impact of population ageing in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 207-226, August.
    24. Samir KC & Bilal Barakat & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Warren C. Sanderson & Wolfgang Lutz, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472.
    25. Doorley, Karina, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change," Papers RB20170303, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    26. Alari Paulus & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2020. "Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, August.
    27. Francesco Figari & Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Panos Tsakloglou & Gerlinde Verbist & Francesca Zantomio, 2017. "Removing Homeownership Bias in Taxation: The Distributional Effects of Including Net Imputed Rent in Taxable Income," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 525-557, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vanda Almeida & Salvador Barrios & Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Alberto Tumino & Wouter Wielen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 413-431, September.
    2. Shaik, Muhammad Raees & Goh, Soo Khoon & Wong, Koi Nyen & Law, Chee Hong, 2024. "Does population aging coexist with income inequality in the long run? Evidence from selected Asia-Pacific countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    3. Karina Doorley & Jan Gromadzki & Piotr Lewandowski & Dora Tuda & Philippe Van Kerm, 2023. "Automation and income inequality in Europe," IBS Working Papers 06/2023, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    4. Bussolo,Maurizio & Krolage,Carla & Makovec,Mattia & Peichl,Andreas & Stockli,Marc & Torre,Ivan & Wittneben,Christian, 2018. "Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution : The Cases of Western and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8657, The World Bank.
    5. Salvador Barrios & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Francesco Figari & Luca Gandullia, 2020. "Size and distributional pattern of pension-related tax expenditures in European countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1320, October.
    6. Barhoom Faeyzh, 2023. "Revisiting the Financial Development and Income Inequality Nexus: Evidence from Hungary," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 227-257, October.
    7. Michael Christl & Silvia Poli & Tine Hufkens & Andreas Peichl & Mattia Ricci, 2023. "The role of short-time work and discretionary policy measures in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1107-1136, August.
    8. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    9. Md Jamil, Abd Rahim & Law, Siong Hook & Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2024. "Financial inclusion and income inequality in developing countries: The role of aging populations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    10. Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Dragoș-Alexandru HAȘEGAN, 2021. "Statistical analysis on population ageing," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 83-96, Summer.
    11. Simplice A. Asongu & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne, 2022. "Demographic Change and Wealth Inequality: Global Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/085, African Governance and Development Institute..
    12. Prashant Kumar Choudhary & Priyanka Saharia, 2023. "Global income inequality and measuring values with the world values survey," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 25(1), pages 103-122, June.
    13. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Jinjing Li & Hai Anh La & Denisa M. Sologon, 2021. "Policy, Demography, and Market Income Volatility: What Shaped Income Distribution and Inequality in Australia Between 2002 and 2016?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 196-221, March.
    15. LI Jinjing & LA Hai anh & SOLOGON Denisa, 2019. "Policy, demography and market income volatility: What was shaping income distribution in Australia between 2002 and 2016?," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-02, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Iva Tasseva, 2020. "Indexing Out of Poverty? Fiscal Drag and Benefit Erosion in Cross‐National Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 311-333, June.
    2. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    3. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Christian Wittneben, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation and Automatic Stabilization: New Results," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 420-450, September.
    4. Jörg Paetzold & Markus Tiefenbacher, 2018. "Distributional and revenue effects of a tax shift from labor to property," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1215-1251, October.
    5. Jinjing Li & Hai Anh La & Denisa M. Sologon, 2021. "Policy, Demography, and Market Income Volatility: What Shaped Income Distribution and Inequality in Australia Between 2002 and 2016?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 196-221, March.
    6. Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Colombino, Ugo & Figari, Francesco & Locatelli, Marilena, 2020. "Shifting taxes away from labour enhances equity and fiscal efficiency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 367-384.
    7. Nerijus Černiauskas & Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Linas Tarasonis, 2022. "Income Inequality and Redistribution in Lithuania: The Role of Policy, Labor Market, Income, and Demographics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(S1), pages 131-166, April.
    8. Denisa M. Sologon & Cathal O’Donoghue & Iryna Kyzyma & Jinjing Li & Jules Linden & Raymond Wagener, 2022. "The COVID-19 resilience of a continental welfare regime - nowcasting the distributional impact of the crisis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 777-809, December.
    9. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2023. "Preference for redistribution during structural change with labor mobility frictions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Alari Paulus & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2020. "Europe Through the Crisis: Discretionary Policy Changes and Automatic Stabilizers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, August.
    11. John Hills & Alari Paulus & Holly Sutherland & Iva Tasseva, 2014. "A lost decade? Decomposing the effect of 2001-11 tax-benefit policy changes on the income distribution in EU countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/03, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    12. Palviainen, Heikki, 2019. "Changing Nordic model? A policy analysis," EUROMOD Working Papers EM15/19, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Holly Sutherland, 2018. "Quality Assessment of Microsimulation Models The Case of EUROMOD," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 198-223.
    14. SOLOGON Denisa & ALMEIDA Vanda & VAN KERM Philippe, 2019. "Accounting for the distributional effects of the 2007-2008 crisis and the Economic Adjustment Program in Portugal," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-05, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    15. Bussolo,Maurizio & Krolage,Carla & Makovec,Mattia & Peichl,Andreas & Stockli,Marc & Torre,Ivan & Wittneben,Christian, 2018. "Vertical and Horizontal Redistribution : The Cases of Western and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8657, The World Bank.
    16. Salvador Barrios & Flavia Coda Moscarola & Francesco Figari & Luca Gandullia, 2020. "Size and distributional pattern of pension-related tax expenditures in European countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1320, October.
    17. Doorley, Karina & Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2018. "Inequality in EU crisis countries. How effective were automatic stabilisers?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/18, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    18. Denisa M. Sologon & Philippe Kerm & Jinjing Li & Cathal O’Donoghue, 2021. "Accounting for differences in income inequality across countries: tax-benefit policy, labour market structure, returns and demographics," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(1), pages 13-43, March.
    19. Karina Doorley & Tim Callan & Michael Savage, 2021. "What drove income inequality in EU crisis countries during the Great Recession?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 319-343, June.
    20. Caterina Astarita & Salvador Barrios & Francesca D'Auria & Anamaria Maftei & Philipp Mohl & Matteo Salto & Marie-Luise Schmitz & Alberto Tumino & Edouard Turkisch, 2018. "Impact of fiscal policy on income distribution," Report on Public Finances in EMU, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, pages 71-131, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income distribution; Demography; Labor market; Decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joecin:v:17:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-019-09411-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.