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Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model

  • Warin, Thierry

    ()

    (Middlebury College)

  • Wunnava, Phanindra V.

    ()

    (Middlebury College)

  • Tengia, Optat

    ()

    (Brown University)

  • Wandschneider, Kirsten

    ()

    (Occidental College)

This paper investigates the feasibility of creating a common-currency union consisting of 16 countries in Southern Africa. We estimate an augmented-gravity model that includes public deficit, public debt, public expenditure, inflation, and the foreign reserves position. We also integrate Africa-specific variables such as existing economic blocs in the region, colonial heritage, and the convergence of living standards. Our analysis shows that the prospect for further integration in Southern Africa is promising, but many challenges still persist. The existing economic blocs can provide a first stepping stone to a larger currency union, but countries continuously have to cultivate good governance and fiscal discipline.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4316.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: African Finance Journal, 2011, 13 (1), 1- 13
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4316
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Anyanwu, 2003. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Unions: The Case of Trade and Output," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 15(2‐3), pages 126-145.
  3. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  4. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
  6. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, 02.
  7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
  8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Maylis Coupet, 2003. "On the Adequacy of Monetary Arrangements in Sub-Saharian Africa," Working Papers 2003-11, CEPII research center.
  9. Cobham, David & Robson, Peter, 1994. "Monetary integration in Africa: A deliberately European perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-299, March.
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
  11. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October.
  12. Thierry Warin, 2005. "The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38, March.
  13. Mamadou Wane & Paul Burkett & Robert Guell, 1996. "Economic growth and monetary union in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence on the effects of CFA-zone membership," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 769-773.
  14. Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "Comesa and Sadc; Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
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