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Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model

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  • Moshi Optat Herman
  • Kirsten Wandschneider
  • Thierry Warin
  • Phanindra Wunnava

    () (Middlebury College, USA)

Abstract

This paper investigates the feasibility of creating a common-currency union consisting of 16 countries in Southern Africa. We estimate an augmented-gravity model that includes public deficit, public debt, public expenditure, inflation, and the foreign reserves position. We also integrate Africa-specific variables such as existing economic blocs in the region, colonial heritage, and the convergence of living standards. Our analysis shows that the prospect for further integration in Southern Africa is promising, but many challenges still persist. The existing economic blocs can provide a first stepping stone to a larger currency union, but countries continuously have to cultivate good governance and fiscal discipline.

Suggested Citation

  • Moshi Optat Herman & Kirsten Wandschneider & Thierry Warin & Phanindra Wunnava, 2011. "Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
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    3. Thierry Warin, 2005. "The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38, February.
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    6. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
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    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 412-444, October.
    9. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Moyo, 2019. "Evaluating the impact of global oil prices on the SADC and the potential for increased trade in biofuels and natural gas within the region," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-36, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Fahimifard , Seyed Mohammad, 2013. "Studying Iranian Economic Integration with OIC Members Using Gravity Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(1), pages 169-181, January.
    3. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor & Peter A. G. Bergeijk, 2014. "Measuring Multi-Membership in Economic Integration and Its Trade Impact: A Comparative Study of ECOWAS and SADC," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 518-530, December.
    4. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2011. "Multi-membership and effectiveness of regional trade agreements in Western and Southern Africa: a comparative study of ECOWAS and SADC," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 1, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; gravity model; Southern African integration; endogenous optimum currency area theory;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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