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Southern African Economic Integration: Evidence from an Augmented Gravity Model

  • Moshi Optat Herman
  • Kirsten Wandschneider
  • Thierry Warin
  • Phanindra Wunnava


    (Middlebury College, USA)

This paper investigates the feasibility of creating a common-currency union consisting of 16 countries in Southern Africa. We estimate an augmented-gravity model that includes public deficit, public debt, public expenditure, inflation, and the foreign reserves position. We also integrate Africa-specific variables such as existing economic blocs in the region, colonial heritage, and the convergence of living standards. Our analysis shows that the prospect for further integration in Southern Africa is promising, but many challenges still persist. The existing economic blocs can provide a first stepping stone to a larger currency union, but countries continuously have to cultivate good governance and fiscal discipline.

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Article provided by Africagrowth Institute in its journal African Finance Journal.

Volume (Year): 13 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-13

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Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:13:y:2011:i:1:p:1-13
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  1. Padamja Khandelwal, 2004. "Comesa and Sadc: Prospects and Challenges for Regional Trade Integration," IMF Working Papers 04/227, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Thierry Warin, 2005. "The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 29-38, March.
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  7. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, 02.
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
  9. John Anyanwu, 2003. "Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Unions: The Case of Trade and Output," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 15(2‐3), pages 126-145.
  10. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October.
  11. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  12. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  14. Mamadou Wane & Paul Burkett & Robert Guell, 1996. "Economic growth and monetary union in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence on the effects of CFA-zone membership," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 769-773.
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