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The Effect of Absolute versus Relative Temperature on Health and the Role of Social Care

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  • Masiero, Giuliano

    (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Mazzonna, Fabrizio

    (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana)

  • Santarossa, Michael

    (University of Pavia)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality and emergency hospital admissions, and whether local social care allows to mitigate their adverse effects. We merge monthly administrative data on mortality and hospital discharge from Italian municipalities for the period 2001-2015 with daily data on local weather conditions, and yearly data on disaggregated municipal expenditure. We compare two different measures of temperature shocks, the standard measure based on absolute levels and another measure based on deviations from local mean temperatures. We find that the former measure is more effective in capturing the adverse effects of shocks on health outcomes. In particular, extremely hot and cold days increase mortality rates and hospital admission rates for both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. These effects are mostly driven by the oldest age group and partially by young children. Then, we report evidence of a mitigating effect of social expenditure on the impact of extremely hot and cold days on both emergency hospital admission and mortality rates. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the additional social care expenditure is fully compensated by the benefits arising from the lower impact of temperature shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Masiero, Giuliano & Mazzonna, Fabrizio & Santarossa, Michael, 2021. "The Effect of Absolute versus Relative Temperature on Health and the Role of Social Care," IZA Discussion Papers 14201, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14201
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    2. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Bratti, Massimiliano & Frimpong, Prince Boakye & Russo, Simone, 2021. "Prenatal Exposure to Heat Waves and Child Health in Sub-saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 14424, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Martin Hensher, 2023. "Climate change, health and sustainable healthcare: The role of health economics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 985-992, May.
    5. Risto Conte Keivabu & Marco Cozzani & Joshua Wilde, 2023. "Temperature and fertility: evidence from Spanish register data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Bui, Thanh-Huong & Bui, Ha-Phuong & Pham, Thi Mai-Anh, 2024. "Effects of temperature on job insecurity: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 264-276.
    7. Pavanello, Filippo & Valenti, Giulia, 2025. "Mortality, Temperature, and Public Adaptation Policy: Evidence from Italy," FEEM Working Papers 386192, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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