IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13475.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Biased Beliefs and Entry into Scientific Careers

Author

Listed:
  • Ganguli, Ina

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Gaule, Patrick

    (University of Bristol)

  • Čugalj, Danijela Vuletić

    (CERGE-EI)

Abstract

We investigate whether excessively optimistic beliefs may play a role in the persistent demand for doctoral and post-doctoral training in science. We elicit the beliefs and career preferences of doctoral students through a novel survey and randomize the provision of structured information on the true state of the academic market and information through role models on non-academic careers. One year later, both treatments lead students to update their beliefs about the academic market and impact career preferences. However, we do not find an effect on actual career outcomes 2 years post-intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganguli, Ina & Gaule, Patrick & Čugalj, Danijela Vuletić, 2020. "Biased Beliefs and Entry into Scientific Careers," IZA Discussion Papers 13475, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp13475.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
    2. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn & Giorgio Topa, 2021. "Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 324-363, January.
    3. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    4. Philip Oreopoulos & Ryan Dunn, 2013. "Information and College Access: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(1), pages 3-26, January.
    5. Taryn Dinkelman & Claudia Martínez A., 2014. "Investing in Schooling In Chile: The Role of Information about Financial Aid for Higher Education," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 244-257, May.
    6. Zachary Bleemer & Basit Zafar, 2014. "Information heterogeneity and intended college enrollment," Staff Reports 685, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Philippe Aghion & Mathias Dewatripont & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Academic freedom, private‐sector focus, and the process of innovation," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(3), pages 617-635, September.
    8. Henry Sauermann & Paula E. Stephan, 2010. "Twins or Strangers? Differences and Similarities between Industrial and Academic Science," NBER Working Papers 16113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ulrike Malmendier & Timothy Taylor, 2015. "On the Verges of Overconfidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 3-8, Fall.
    10. Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund, 2007. "Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1067-1101.
    11. Patrick Gaulé & Mario Piacentini, 2013. "Chinese Graduate Students and U.S. Scientific Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 698-701, May.
    12. Pascaline Dupas, 2011. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-34, January.
    13. Sauermann, Henry & Roach, Michael, 2013. "Increasing web survey response rates in innovation research: An experimental study of static and dynamic contact design features," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 273-286.
    14. David Cyranoski & Natasha Gilbert & Heidi Ledford & Anjali Nayar & Mohammed Yahia, 2011. "Education: The PhD factory," Nature, Nature, vol. 472(7343), pages 276-279, April.
    15. Gaule, Patrick & Piacentini, Mario, 2018. "An advisor like me? Advisor gender and post-graduate careers in science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 805-813.
    16. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 117-169.
    17. Scott Stern, 2004. "Do Scientists Pay to Be Scientists?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(6), pages 835-853, June.
    18. Eliana La Ferrara, 2016. "Mass Media and Social Change: Can We Use Television to Fight Poverty?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 791-827.
    19. Catherine Porter & Danila Serra, 2020. "Gender Differences in the Choice of Major: The Importance of Female Role Models," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 226-254, July.
    20. Loyalka, Prashant & Liu, Chengfang & Song, Yingquan & Yi, Hongmei & Huang, Xiaoting & Wei, Jianguo & Zhang, Linxiu & Shi, Yaojiang & Chu, James & Rozelle, Scott, 2013. "Can information and counseling help students from poor rural areas go to high school? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1012-1025.
    21. Paul M. Romer, 2001. "Should the Government Subsidize Supply or Demand in the Market for Scientists and Engineers?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 1, pages 221-252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Eliana La Ferrara, 2016. "Mass Media And Social Change: Can We Use Television To Fight Poverty?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 791-827, August.
    23. Henry Sauermann & Michael Roach, 2012. "Science PhD Career Preferences: Levels, Changes, and Advisor Encouragement," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-9, May.
    24. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Delia Furtado, 2019. "Settling for Academia?: H-1B Visas and the Career Choices of International Students in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 401-429.
    25. Hayter, Christopher S. & Parker, Marla A., 2019. "Factors that influence the transition of university postdocs to non-academic scientific careers: An exploratory study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 556-570.
    26. Kendall Powell, 2015. "The future of the postdoc," Nature, Nature, vol. 520(7546), pages 144-147, April.
    27. Gaule, Patrick & Piacentini, Mario, 2017. "An Advisor Like Me? Advisor Gender and Post-Graduate Careers in Science," IZA Discussion Papers 10828, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Kevin M. Stange, 2012. "An Empirical Investigation of the Option Value of College Enrollment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 49-84, January.
    29. Paula Stephan & Jennifer Ma, 2005. "The Increased Frequency and Duration of the Postdoctorate Career Stage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 71-75, May.
    30. Robert Jensen, 2010. "The (Perceived) Returns to Education and the Demand for Schooling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 515-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nikoloz Kudashvili & Gega Todua, 2022. "Information, Perceived Returns and College Major Choices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp717, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ganguli, Ina & Gaulé, Patrick & Čugalj, Danijela Vuletić, 2022. "Chasing the academic dream: Biased beliefs and scientific labor markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 17-33.
    2. Nikoloz Kudashvili & Gega Todua, 2022. "Information, Perceived Returns and College Major Choices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp717, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2021. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Representative Evidence from Adults and Adolescents," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(351), pages 624-670, July.
    4. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    5. Johannes S. Kunz & Kevin E. Staub, 2016. "Subjective Completion Beliefs and the Demand for Post-Secondary Education," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 878, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Bleemer, Zachary & Zafar, Basit, 2018. "Intended college attendance: Evidence from an experiment on college returns and costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 184-211.
    7. Hermes, Henning & Lergetporer, Philipp & Peter, Frauke & Wiederhold, Simon, 2021. "Behavioral Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment," IZA Discussion Papers 14698, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Katharina Werner, 2019. "The Role of Information for Public Preferences on Education – Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 82.
    9. Henning Hermes & Philipp Lergetporer & Frauke Peter & Simon Wiederhold, 2021. "Application Barriers and the Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9282, CESifo.
    10. Ballarino, Gabriele & Filippin, Antonio & Abbiati, Giovanni & Argentin, Gianluca & Barone, Carlo & Schizzerotto, Antonio, 2022. "The effects of an information campaign beyond university enrolment: A large-scale field experiment on the choices of high school students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Corsini, Alberto & Pezzoni, Michele & Visentin, Fabiana, 2022. "What makes a productive Ph.D. student?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    12. Karol Mazur, 2021. "A note on pessimism in education and its economic consequences," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(4), pages 773-783, December.
    13. Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2018. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," CESifo Working Paper Series 7000, CESifo.
    14. Kunz, Johannes S. & Staub, Kevin E., 2020. "Early subjective completion beliefs and the demand for post-secondary education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-55.
    15. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    16. Brade, Raphael, 2022. "Social Information and Educational Investment - Nudging Remedial Math Course Participation," MPRA Paper 113076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2022. "The reliability of students’ earnings expectations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Sarena Goodman, 2013. "Learning from the test: raising selective college enrollment by providing information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Blesse, Sebastian & Heinemann, Friedrich & Krieger, Tommy, 2021. "Informationsdefizite als Hindernis rationaler Wirtschaftspolitik: Ausmass, Ursachen und Gegenstrategien. Eine Studie mit Unterstützung der Brigitte Strube Stiftung," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 241989.
    20. Justine Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2015. "The Effects of Earnings Disclosure on College Enrollment Decisions," Working Papers 2015-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    career preferences; biased beliefs; information; higher education; science;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.