IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/1588.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti
  • Luciano Vereda

Abstract

O objetivo deste texto é analisar as propriedades dinâmicas de um modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral - Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) - para o Brasil, sob parametrizações alternativas do modelo. Inicialmente, apresenta-se uma revisão cuidadosa da literatura, de modo a identificar "faixas admissíveis" de valores para alguns dos principais parâmetros encontrados na classe de modelos DSGE. Em seguida, calculam-se funções de resposta a impulso (FRI) de interesse, sob diversas parametrizações do modelo. Em uma primeira etapa, as FRIs são calculadas variando-se o valor de alguns parâmetros de interesse, um de cada vez, de modo a analisar a sensibilidade das FRIs a cada parâmetro tomado isoladamente. Em uma segunda etapa, realiza-se uma análise de "sensibilidade global" das FRIs do modelo: i) sorteiam-se valores para cada parâmetro do modelo dentro das faixas de valores admissíveis identificadas previamente; ii) calculam-se FRIs para os choques de interesse; iii) repetindo tal procedimento um número grande de vezes, obtêm-se "intervalos de confiança" para as FRIs desejadas. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, as respostas de algumas das principais variáveis macroeconômicas aos choques analisados são compatíveis com fatos estilizados para a economia brasileira e são razoavelmente robustas à escolha dos parâmetros estruturais do modelo no que se refere a seu timing, mas não no que diz respeito à sua magnitude. This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of a DSGE model for Brazil, under alternative model parameterizations. First, we carefully review the literature in order to identify "admissible ranges" for the model`s parameters. We then calculate selected impulse response functions (IRF) under various model parameterizations. We first analyze the sensitivity of IRFs to some of the model`s parameters taken one at a time. We later analyze the model`s IRFs "global sensitivity": i) we randomly draw parameter values from the "admissible ranges" previously identified; ii) we calculate impulse response functions for selected variables and shocks under each draw; iii) by repeating this procedure many times, we obtain "confidence intervals" for the desired IRFs.According to our results, responses by some of the main macroeconomic variables to the selected shocks are compatible with stylized facts for the Brazilian economy and are reasonably robust to the choice of structural parameters with regard to their timing,but not their magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti & Luciano Vereda, 2011. "Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1588, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1588
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1588.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    2. A. R. Pagan & Douglas Laxton & Luis Catão, 2008. "Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter; The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 08/191, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    4. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Luis Alberto Medrano & Adolfo Sachsida, 2009. "Avaliando os Efeitos da Política Fiscal no Brasil: Resultados de um Procedimento de Identificação Agnóstica," Discussion Papers 1377, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    5. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank.
    6. Fernandes, Marcelo & Toro, Juan, 2005. "O Mecanismo de Transmissão Monetária na Economia Brasileira Pós-Plano Real," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(1), January.
    7. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    8. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    9. Marco A.F.H. Cavalcanti & Napoleão L. C. Silva, 2010. "Dívida Pública, Política Fiscal e Nível de Atividade: Uma Abordagem Var Para o Brasil no Período 1995-2008," Discussion Papers 1491, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    12. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    13. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
    14. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Medeiros, Marcelo, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics in Brazil: The Case of a Small Open Economy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    15. Sachsida, Adolfo & Junior, Roberto de Góes Ellery & Gomes, Victor, 2002. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(2), April.
    16. Salgado, Maria José S. & Garcia, Márcio G. P. & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Monetary Policy During Brazil´s Real Plan: Estimating the Central Bank´s Reaction Function," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(1), January.
    17. Silveira, Marcos Antonio, 2008. "Using a Bayesian Approach to Estimate and Compare New Keynesian DSGE Models for the Brazilian Economy: the Role for Endogenous Persistence," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(3), November.
    18. Dionísio Dias Carneiro & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2001. "Inércia de Juros e Regras de Taylor: explorando as Funções de Resposta a Impulso em Um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Com Parâmetros Estilizados para o Brasil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 026, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Daniel O. Beltran & David Draper, 2008. "Estimating the parameters of a small open economy DSGE model: identifiability and inferential validity," International Finance Discussion Papers 955, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 2008.
    20. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    21. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    22. Ali Dib, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 769-796, November.
    23. Lima, Elcyon Caiado & Maka, Alexis & Céspedes, Brisne, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brazil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts from SVAR Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    24. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
    25. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo & Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 613, European Central Bank.
    26. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    27. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Kanczuk, Fabio, 2002. "Juros Reais e Ciclos Reais Brasileiros," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(2), April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreza Aparecida Palma & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2014. "Preferences Of The Central Bank Of Brazil Under The Inflation Targeting Regime: Estimation Using A Dsge Model For A Small Open Economy," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 055, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Teles, Vladimir K. & Costa Junior, Celso Jose & Rosa, Rafael Mouallem, 2015. "Investment-Specific Technological Change and the Brazilian Macroeconomy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.
    3. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva & Nelson Leitão Paes & Jocildo Fernandes Bezerra, 2016. "Evidences Of Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through, Directed Credit And Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 036, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Cavalcanti, Marco A. F. H. & Vereda, Luciano, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers in a DSGE Model for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(2), March.
    5. Costa Junior, Celso Jose & Sampaio, Armando Vaz & Gonçalves, Flávio de Oliveria, 2012. "Income Transfer as Model of Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 45494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado & Celso Jose Costa Junior (celso.costa@fgv.br) & Armando Vaz Sampaio (avsampaio@ufpr.br), 2016. "Post-2008 Brazilian Fiscal Policy: an Interpretation through the Analysis of Fiscal Multipliers," EcoMod2016 9528, EcoMod.
    7. Palma, Andreza Aparecida & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2014. "Preferences of the Central Bank of Brazil under the inflation targeting regime: Estimation using a DSGE model for a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 824-839.
    8. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fabio Schiavinatto). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.