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Dívida Pública, Política Fiscal e Nível de Atividade: Uma Abordagem Var Para o Brasil no Período 1995-2008


  • Marco A.F.H. Cavalcanti
  • Napoleão L. C. Silva


O objetivo deste trabalho é contribuir para o melhor entendimento dos efeitos da política fiscal na economia brasileira no período 1995-2008, a partir de uma análise com base em modelos autorregressivos vetoriais (VAR) que leve explicitamente em consideração o papel da dívida pública na determinação da política fiscal, conforme recomendado por Favero e Giavazzi (2007). De acordo com os resultados obtidos, a consideração explícita do papel da dívida pública na evolução das variáveis fiscais parece realmente fazer diferença na estimação dos efeitos de choques fiscais sobre o nível de atividade; em particular, é provável que os efeitos dos choques fiscais estimados a partir de modelos que omitam a dívida pública estejam superestimados. In this paper we investigate the real effects of fiscal policy in Brazil during the 1995-2008 period by estimating a VAR model that explicitly takes into consideration the role of public debt in the determination of fiscal variables, as recommended by Favero and Giavazzi (2007). According to our results, it really makes a difference whether one takes into account the public debt`s role in the fiscal policy process; more specifically, models that omit the public debt are likely to overestimate the real effects of fiscal policy shocks. i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea`s editorial department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses (abstracts) desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea

Suggested Citation

  • Marco A.F.H. Cavalcanti & Napoleão L. C. Silva, 2010. "Dívida Pública, Política Fiscal e Nível de Atividade: Uma Abordagem Var Para o Brasil no Período 1995-2008," Discussion Papers 1491, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1491

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    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti & Luciano Vereda, 2011. "Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1588, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Moura, Guilherme Valle, 2015. "Multiplicadores Fiscais e Investimento em Infraestrutura," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(1), March.
    4. Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado & Celso Jose Costa Junior ( & Armando Vaz Sampaio (, 2016. "Post-2008 Brazilian Fiscal Policy: an Interpretation through the Analysis of Fiscal Multipliers," EcoMod2016 9528, EcoMod.
    5. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.

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