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Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development

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  • Dong Frank Wu
  • Mr. Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong Frank Wu & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development," IMF Working Papers 2019/048, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    3. Ceyhun Elgin & Serdar Birinci, 2016. "Growth and informality: A comprehensive panel data analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 271-292, November.
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    5. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Philippe Adair, 2017. "Non-Observed Economy vs. the Shadow Economy in the EU: The Accuracy of Measurements Methods and Estimates revisited," Post-Print hal-01683929, HAL.
    7. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2016. "Is Informality a Barrier to Convergence?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2556-2568.
    8. Ceyhun Elgin & Mario-Solis Garcia, 2012. "Public Trust, Taxes and the Informal Sector," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 27-44.
    9. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894.
    10. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    11. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    12. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History," NBER Working Papers 4707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G. & Ellis, Michael A. & Adom, Assandé Désiré, 2016. "Political Instability and the Informal Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 31-42.
    14. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    15. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    16. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    17. Colin C. Williams & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Measuring the Global Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16551.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutiérrez-Romero, Roxana, 2021. "Inequality, persistence of the informal economy, and club convergence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand & Linda A. Hayes, 2023. "The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 539-566, September.
    3. Medda, Tiziana & Palmisano, Flaviana & Sacchi, Agnese, 2022. "Informal we stand? The role of social progress around the world," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 660-675.
    4. Duman, Anil, 2024. "The Diversity of Informal Employment: a survey of drivers, outcomes, and policies," OSF Preprints yg3t7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Stefan Petranov & Dimitar Zlatinov & Milen Velushev & Lillyana Georgieva & Radostina Ivcheva, 2022. "Shadow Economy and Production Factors: Results from an Empirical Analysis with a Panel Data Set," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 44-64.
    6. Mara, Eugenia Ramona, 2021. "Drivers of the shadow economy in European Union welfare states: A panel data analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 309-325.
    7. Loudi Njoya & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Simplice A. Asongu & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "The role of economic prosperity on informality in Africa: evidence of corruption thresholds from PSTR," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/012, African Governance and Development Institute..
    8. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for the shadow economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 210-227.
    9. Loudi Njoya & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Moussa Njoupouognigni & Schneider Friederich & Zenabou Tourere, 2024. "Can we understand the simultaneous evolution between economic and informality growth in Africa? A preliminary explanation," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 398-414, January.
    10. Codruț-Florin Ivașcu & Sorina Emanuela Ștefoni, 2023. "Modelling the Non-Linear Dependencies between Government Expenditures and Shadow Economy Using Data-Driven Approaches," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 97-114, March.
    11. Alexander Jaax & Sébastien Miroudot, 2021. "Capturing value in GVCs through intangible assets: The role of the trade–investment–intellectual property nexus," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(3), pages 433-452, September.
    12. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
    13. Folorunsho Monsuru Ajide & James Temitope Dada & Johnson Kolawole Olowookere, 2022. "Shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Nigerian manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 156-180.
    14. Kouramoudou Kéïta & Hannu Laurila, 2021. "Corruption and Tax Burden: What Is the Joint Effect on Total Factor Productivity?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Shadow Economies Around the World: Evidence from Metropolitan Areas," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 301-322, April.
    16. Philippe Adair, 2021. "The informal economy and gender inequalities in North Africa," Erudite Working Paper 2021-07, Erudite.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; shadow economy size; size of the shadow economy; shadow economy data; labor market; Shadow Economy; Level of Development; Nonlinearity; GDP per capita; causes of the shadow economy; shadow economy driver; shadow economy's determinant; shadow economy while; Informal economy; Tax incidence; Inflation; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development

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