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Growth and informality: A comprehensive panel data analysis

Author

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  • Ceyhun Elgin

    (Bogazici University)

  • Serdar Birinci

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

In this paper we empirically explore the impact of the presence of informal economies on long-run economic growth. Using a novel panel dataset of 161 countries over the period from 1950 to 2010 we obtain an inverted-U relationship between informal sector size and growth of GDP per capita. That is, small and large sizes of the informal economy are associated with little growth and medium levels of the size of the informal economy are associated with higher levels of growth. We also observe that in high (low) income economies, informal economy size is positively (negatively) correlated with growth. Moreover, when we decompose growth into several components using a simple growth accounting framework, we find that informality is mainly associated with growth in TFP and that this association is different in high and low-income economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceyhun Elgin & Serdar Birinci, 2016. "Growth and informality: A comprehensive panel data analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 271-292, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:19:y:2016:n:2:p:271-292
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    Cited by:

    1. Selçuk Akçay & Emre Karabulutoğlu, 2021. "Do remittances moderate financial development–informality nexus in North Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 166-179, March.
    2. Rojas Cama, Freddy & Emara, Noha & Trabelsi, Mohamed, 2024. "Financial inclusion and the informal sector," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    3. Nahid Sultana & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2022. "Informal Sector Employment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries in SDG Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Duman, Anil, 2024. "The Diversity of Informal Employment: a survey of drivers, outcomes, and policies," OSF Preprints yg3t7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi, 2019. "The Financial and Economic Implications of Underground Economy: The Nigerian Perspective," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 155-167, July.
    6. Chandril Bhattacharyya & Dibyendu Maiti, 2023. "Informal Sector, Innovation and Growth," Working papers 334, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Charles K. Mawusi, 2021. "Does Informality and Trade Openness Impact Long Run Growth? Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(1), pages 28-40.
    8. Loudi Njoya & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Simplice A. Asongu & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "The role of economic prosperity on informality in Africa: evidence of corruption thresholds from PSTR," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/012, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Sultana, Nahid & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Murad, S.M. Woahid, 2024. "Asymmetric role of the informal sector on economic growth: Empirical investigation on a developing country," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 96-107.
    10. Loudi Njoya & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Moussa Njoupouognigni & Schneider Friederich & Zenabou Tourere, 2024. "Can we understand the simultaneous evolution between economic and informality growth in Africa? A preliminary explanation," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 398-414, January.
    11. Gökçer Özgür & Ceyhun Elgin & Adem Y. Elveren, 2021. "Is informality a barrier to sustainable development?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 45-65, January.
    12. Joseph Mawejje, 2024. "Government expenditure, informality, and economic growth: Evidence from Eastern and Southern African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 125-138, March.
    13. Kerem Cantekin & Ceyhun Elgin, 2017. "Extent And Growth Effects Of Informality In Turkey: Evidence From A Firm-Level Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1017-1037, December.
    14. Ceyhun Elgin, 2021. "Foreign direct investment, informality and technology transfer," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 994-1015, May.
    15. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    16. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2021. "The value-added tax and growth: design matters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1211-1241, October.
    17. repec:osf:osfxxx:yg3t7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Maiti, Dibyendu & Bhattacharyya, Chandril, 2020. "Informality, enforcement and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 259-274.
    19. Dong Frank Wu & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development," IMF Working Papers 2019/048, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Loudi Njoya & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Corruption, Economic Growth and the Informal Sector: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/014, African Governance and Development Institute..
    21. Laura Cabeza-García & Esther B. Del Brio & Mery Luz Oscanoa-Victorio, 2018. "Gender Factors and Inclusive Economic Growth: The Silent Revolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    22. Sumbal Shahid & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan, 2020. "Informal Sector Economy, Child Labor and Economic Growth in Developing Economies: Exploring the Interlinkages," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 277-287, December.
    23. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2022. "Shadow Economy and Poverty: What Causes What?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(4), pages 861-891, December.
    24. Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2019. "The Value Added Tax and Growth: Design Matters," IMF Working Papers 2019/096, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    informal economy; growth accounting; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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