IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2010-060.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Influence of “Big Brothers: ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

This paper examines the role played by regional factors in Uruguay, identifies the sources and transmission mechanisms of shocks stemming from the region, and assesses how vulnerable Uruguay is to a potential crisis in the region. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that shocks from Argentina-which account for about 20 percent of Uruguayan output fluctuations-have large and rapid effects. This is mainly due to the existence of idiosyncratic real and financial linkages between Uruguay and Argentina, which also explain the very high correlation between their business cycles. The analysis of previous crises in the region suggests that despite the importance of these strong linkages, and despite the fact the two deepest crises in recent Uruguayan history followed crises in Argentina, Uruguay is now clearly less vulnerable to financial contagion from the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2010. "The Influence of “Big Brothers: ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?," IMF Working Papers 2010/060, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23683
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Uruguay: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/427, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes," Research Department Publications 4280, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, July.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    7. Ernesto Talvi & Alfonso S. Bevilaqua & Marcelo Catena, 2001. "Integration, Interdependence, and Regional Goods: An Application to Mercosur," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2001), pages 153-208, August.
    8. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets," Research Department Publications 4279, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Cruces & Gary S. Fields & David Jaume & Mariana Viollaz, 2015. "The growth-employment-poverty nexus in Latin America in the 2000s: Uruguay country study," WIDER Working Paper Series 083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Bucacos, Elizabeth, 2017. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8275, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2018. "Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy in Uruguay: An MS-VAR Approach," MIC 2018: Managing Global Diversities; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Bled, Slovenia, 30 May–2 June 2018,, University of Primorska Press.
    4. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2017. "Impact of International Monetary Policy in Uruguay: A favar Approach," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), International Spillovers of Monetary Policy, edition 1, chapter 10, pages 321-367, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    5. Elizabeth Bucacos & Javier García-Cicco & Miguel Mello, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks. The case of Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2023008, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    6. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    7. Bibiana Lanzilotta & Gabriela Mordecki & Victoria Umpiérrez, 2018. "Political economic uncertainty in a small & open economy: the case of Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 18-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    8. Ángel Estrada García & Alberto Ortiz Bolaños (ed.), 2017. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, edition 1, volume 1, number 3, December.
    9. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2015. "Impact of international monetary policy in Uruguay: a FAVAR approach," Documentos de trabajo 2015003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    10. Tatiana Didier & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2014. "Emerging Issues in Financial Development : Lessons from Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16387, December.
    11. Guillermo Cruces & Gary S. Fields & David Jaume & Mariana Viollaz, 2015. "The growth-employment-poverty nexus in Latin America in the 2000s: Uruguay country study," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-083, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    2. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Chong, Alberto E., 2003. "Corporate Governance and Private Capital Flows to Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1457, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Fernandez Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," MPRA Paper 9074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/159, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    6. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    7. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," Research Department Publications 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Alberto Chong & Alejandro Izquierdo & Alejandro Micco & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Conducción empresarial y flujos de capitales privados hacia América Latina," Research Department Publications 4324, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2015. "Impact of international monetary policy in Uruguay: a FAVAR approach," Documentos de trabajo 2015003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    10. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," Borradores de Economia 3674, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    13. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Elizabeth Bucacos & Javier García-Cicco & Miguel Mello, 2023. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Foreign Shocks. The case of Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2023008, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries: Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/132, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Nilufer Ozdemir, 2013. "Effects of Monetary Policy Coordination on Small Open Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 124-136, May.
    17. Carl Grekou, 2014. "On the effectiveness of devaluations in emerging and developing countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-61, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2004. "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Bonanza y crisis en América Latina: El papel de los factores externos," Research Department Publications 4570, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Carl Grekou, 2014. "On the effectiveness of devaluations in emerging and developing countries," Working Papers hal-04141278, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.