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La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa

  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati
  • Ugo Panizza
  • Ernesto H. Stein

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo analizamos la manera en que los ciclos económico y de tasas de interés en países desarrollados inciden en la inversión extranjera directa (IED) destinada a los países en desarrollo. Después de agregar los flujos en tres grandes áreas de origen (Estados Unidos, Europa y Japón), hallamos que los flujos de IED son anticíclicos con respecto tanto a los ciclos de producción como a los de tasas de interés en las primeras dos, mientras que en Japón no exhiben ningún comportamiento cíclico, ni siquiera un comportamiento medianamente cíclico. Este hallazgo se corresponde con el hecho de que los egresos de IED y la inversión en el país tienden a desplazarse en direcciones opuestas durante los ciclos en EE. UU. y Europa, lo que obedece a la ponderación de los inversionistas de diversas oportunidades de inversión. En síntesis, y contrariamente a lo que habitualmente se afirma, concluimos que es probable que las recesiones en países industrializados hagan aumentar los flujos de IED, especialmente la dirigida a aquellos países con lazos estrechos con EE. UU. y Europa.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4318.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4318
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