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El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes

Listed author(s):
  • Carmen Reinhart
  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Eduardo Fernández-Arias

    ()

  • Ernesto Talvi

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Para el momento en que se realizó este trabajo existía una inquietud generalizada sobre el buen estado de la economía estadounidense. Hay elementos de juicio concluyentes que indican que el ritmo del crecimiento se ha desacelerado, lo que ha llevado a la Reserva Federal a recortar las tasas de interés en dos oportunidades (para un total de 100 puntos base hasta ahora). Como ya es habitual, ante esta clase de viraje, analistas y diseñadores de políticas por igual se preguntan si Estados Unidos conseguirá un aterrizaje suave o si el desmejoramiento de la coyuntura será más grave y prolongado; en el peor escenario, la nueva debilidad puede anunciar el fin de la nueva economía. Además, las recientes sorpresas inflacionarias no han sido nada alentadoras, ya que cifras inflacionarias superiores a lo anticipado pueden entorpecer el deseo y la capacidad de la Reserva Federal de actuar de manera anticíclica.

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File URL: http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-458&pub_file_name=pubWP-458.pdf
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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4280.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4280
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