IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/wpaper/4280.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen Reinhart
  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Eduardo Fernández-Arias

    ()

  • Ernesto Talvi

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Para el momento en que se realizó este trabajo existía una inquietud generalizada sobre el buen estado de la economía estadounidense. Hay elementos de juicio concluyentes que indican que el ritmo del crecimiento se ha desacelerado, lo que ha llevado a la Reserva Federal a recortar las tasas de interés en dos oportunidades (para un total de 100 puntos base hasta ahora). Como ya es habitual, ante esta clase de viraje, analistas y diseñadores de políticas por igual se preguntan si Estados Unidos conseguirá un aterrizaje suave o si el desmejoramiento de la coyuntura será más grave y prolongado; en el peor escenario, la nueva debilidad puede anunciar el fin de la nueva economía. Además, las recientes sorpresas inflacionarias no han sido nada alentadoras, ya que cifras inflacionarias superiores a lo anticipado pueden entorpecer el deseo y la capacidad de la Reserva Federal de actuar de manera anticíclica.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "El ciclo de crecimiento de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y sus consecuencias para los mercados emergentes," Research Department Publications 4280, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-458&pub_file_name=pubWP-458.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
    12. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Sosa & Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean; The Role of Climatic and External Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/159, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Fernandez Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," MPRA Paper 9074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries; Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 10/132, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
    6. Nilufer Ozdemir, 2013. "Effects of Monetary Policy Coordination on Small Open Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 124-136, May.
    7. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4277, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," Research Department Publications 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2004. "Determinants And Impact Of Financial Sector Fdi To Emerging," International Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
    11. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2006. "Why Banks go to Emerging Countries and What is the Impact for the Home Economy? A Survey," Working Papers 0602, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    13. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2015. "Impact of international monetary policy in Uruguay: a FAVAR approach," Documentos de trabajo 2015003, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    14. Sebastian Sosa, 2010. "The Influence of “Big Brothers; ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?," IMF Working Papers 10/60, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico; How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund.
    16. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle; Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 13/183, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Steven Brakman & Gus Garita & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Unlocking the Value of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2294, CESifo Group Munich.
    18. Carlos Rodríguez & Ricardo Bustillo, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Business Cycle: New Insights after the Great Recession," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(2), pages 136-153.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Felipe Herrera Library). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.