Accelerated Investment and Credit Risk under a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Real Options Approach
Empirical studies have found that a low interest rate environment accelerates firmsf investment and debt financing, leading to subsequent balance sheet problems in many countries in recent years. We examine the mechanism whereby firmfs debt financing and investment become more accelerated and the credit risk rises under a low interest rate environment from the perspective of a real options model. We find that firms tend to increase debt financing and investment not only under strong expectations of continued low interest rates but also when there are expectations of future interest rate increases, and such behavior causes higher credit risk. We also find that when future interest rate rises are expected, the investment decisions vary depending on how firms incorporate the possibility of future interest rises. Specifically, myopic firms make glast-minute investmentsh based on concerns over future interest rate hikes and this behavior increases their credit risk. In contrast, economically rational firms choose to decrease their investments, carefully considering the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhdanov, Alexei, 2007. "Competitive Equilibrium with Debt," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 709-734, September.
- Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993.
"Strategic Debt Service,"
CEPR Financial Markets Paper
0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Suresh Sundaresan & Neng Wang, 2007. "Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 256-261, May.
- Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
- Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons: Background Paper," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 395-450, February.
- Takashi Shibata & Tetsuya Yamada, 2009.
"Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending: A Game- theoretic Real Options Approach,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
09-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Takashi Shibata & Tetsuya Yamada, 2009. "Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending: A Game- Theoretic Real Options Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 195-218, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.