Accelerated Investment and Credit Risk under a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Real Options Approach
Empirical studies have found that a low interest rate environment accelerates firms f investment and debt financing, leading to subsequent balance sheet problems in many countries in recent years. We examine the mechanism whereby firm fs debt financing and investment become more accelerated and the credit risk rises under a low interest rate environment from the perspective of a real options model. We find that firms tend to increase debt financing and investment not only under strong expectations of continued low interest rates but also when there are expectations of future interest rate increases, and such behavior causes higher credit risk. We also find that when future interest rate rises are expected, the investment decisions vary depending on how firms incorporate the possibility of future interest rises. Specifically, myopic firms make glast-minute investments h based on concerns over future interest rate hikes and this behavior increases their credit risk. In contrast, economically rational firms choose to decrease their investments, carefully considering the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103|
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Okina, Kunio & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2001. "The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons: Background Paper," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 395-450, February.
- Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997.
" Strategic Debt Service,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-556, June.
- Pierre Mella-Barral & William R M Perraudin, 1993. "Strategic Debt Service," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0039, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Hoshi, Takeo, 2001. "What Happened to Japanese Banks?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29, February.
- Zhdanov, Alexei, 2007. "Competitive Equilibrium with Debt," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(03), pages 709-734, September.
- Takashi Shibata & Tetsuya Yamada, 2009. "Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending: A Game- Theoretic Real Options Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 195-218, November.
- Takashi Shibata & Tetsuya Yamada, 2009. "Dynamic Model of Credit Risk in Relationship Lending: A Game- theoretic Real Options Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Suresh Sundaresan & Neng Wang, 2007. "Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 256-261, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.