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Testing for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Exponential and Weibull Duration Models

  • Jin Seo Cho

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea)

  • Halbert White

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, U.S.A.)

We examine use of the likelihood ratio (LR) statistics to test for unobserved heterogeneity in duration models, based on mixtures of exponential or Weibull distributions. We consider both the uncensored and censored duration cases. The asymptotic null distribution of the LR test statistics is not the standard chi-square, as the standard regularity conditions do not hold. Instead, there is a nuisance parameter identified only under the alternative, and a null parameter value on the boundary of parameter space, as in Cho and White (2007a). We accommodate these and provide methods delivering consistent asymptotic critical values. We conduct a number of Monte Carlo simulations, comparing the level and power of the LR test statistics to an information matrix (IM) text due to Chesher (1984) and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests of Kiefer (1985) and Sharma (1987). Our simulations show that the LR test statistic generally outperforms the IM and LM tests. We aslo revisit the work of van den Berg and Ridder (1998) on unemployment durations and of Ghysels, Gourieroux, and Jasiak (2004)on interarrival times between stock trades, and, as it turns out, affirm their original informal inferences.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Korea University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 0912.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0912
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  1. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
  2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  3. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  4. James E. Prieger, . "Conditional Moment Tests for Parametric Duration Models," Department of Economics 00-10, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  5. FERNANDES, Marcelo & GRAMMIG, Joachim, 2001. "A family of autoregressive conditional duration models," CORE Discussion Papers 2001036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
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  8. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February.
  9. Lancaster, Tony, 1985. "Generalised residuals and heterogeneous duration models : With applications to the Weilbull model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 155-169, April.
  10. James Prieger, 2003. "Bootstrapping the conditional moment test for parametric duration models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 597-600.
  11. Bierens, H.J., 1989. "A consistent conditional moment test of functional form," Serie Research Memoranda 0064, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  12. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2007. "The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Horowitz, Joel L., 1994. "Bootstrap-based critical values for the information matrix test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 395-411, April.
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  15. Xin Liu & Cristian Pasarica & Yongzhao Shao, 2003. "Testing Homogeneity in Gamma Mixture Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 30(1), pages 227-239.
  16. Eric Ghysels & Christian Gourieroux & Joanna Jasiak, 1997. "Stochastic Volatility Duration Models," Working Papers 97-46, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
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  19. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
  20. Hanfeng Chen & Jiahua Chen & John D. Kalbfleisch, 2001. "A modified likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in finite mixture models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(1), pages 19-29.
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  29. Sunil Sharma, 1987. "Specification Diagnostics for Econometric Models of Duration," UCLA Economics Working Papers 440, UCLA Department of Economics.
  30. Chesher, Andrew D, 1984. "Testing for Neglected Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 865-72, July.
  31. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
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