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What is Learned from a Currency Crisis, Fear of Floating or Hollow Middle? Identifying Exchange Rate Policy in Recent Crisis Countries

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  • Soyoung Kim

    () (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Abstract

This paper develops a new methodology to infer the de facto exchange rate regime, based on a structural VAR model with sign restrictions. The methodology is applied to data from eleven emerging markets that recently experienced a currency crisis. The main findings are: (1) to be consistent with the “Hollow Middle?hypothesis, many countries moved toward hard pegs, such as dollarization and a currency board, or more flexible exchange rate arrangements that are close to the free float in the post-crisis period; and (2) the cases where a country over-states its exchange rate flexibility (including the case of “Fear of Floating? are found in all samples, but such cases tend to be less frequently found in the post-crisis period than in the pre-crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim, 2007. "What is Learned from a Currency Crisis, Fear of Floating or Hollow Middle? Identifying Exchange Rate Policy in Recent Crisis Countries," Discussion Paper Series 0712, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:0712
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    File URL: http://econ.korea.ac.kr/~ri/WorkingPapers/w0712.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    De Facto Exchange Rate Regime; structural VAR; Fear of Floating; Hollow Middle; Currency Crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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